GOLD: Ukraine Risks, US Data & Fed Pricing Key To Gold’s Direction
Gold range traded last week and finished the week down 0.5% with a 0.3% drop on Friday to $4065.52. It fell to a low of $4022.65 but then recovered to $4101.16 boosted by comments from NY Fed’s Williams in favour of a December rate cut due to the labour market. The probability priced in for an easing on 10 December rose over the second half of last week from around 37% to 75% on Friday but the October minutes showed a material differing in FOMC views. The US dollar was down slightly and 2-year yield lower.
- Last week bullion traded between $3998.08 and $4132.86 holding above the 50-day EMA at $3948.2 and below the short-term bull trigger at $4245.23.
- After September payrolls showed stronger-than-expected job growth, Friday’s data showed a slight rise in the preliminary November S&P composite PMI to 54.8 and higher final November Uni of Michigan consumer sentiment with lower inflation expectations.
- Given the delay in releases from the US government shutdown, attention will be firmly on the data that comes out ahead of the next Fed meeting.
- Talks took place over the weekend between the US, Ukraine and Europe, the Europeans have said the plan still needs a lot of work, and are scheduled to continue on Monday. There remain significant geopolitical risks around these developments with Europe, Canada and Japan voicing worries that Ukraine would have to give up too much.
- Concerns that the US deal, which favours Russia, was inflexible have been calmed with President Trump saying that it was not final and President Zelenskyy posting there are “signals that President Trump’s team hears us”.
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FED: MNI Fed Preview - October 2025: QT, Or Not QT
MNI's preview of the October FOMC has been published - Download Full Report Here
- The Federal Reserve is overwhelmingly expected to cut the funds rate by 25bp for a 2nd consecutive meeting on October 29, bringing the target range to 3.75-4.00%.
- This will again be framed as a risk management cut, with the limited data available since the September meeting not disconfirming that the shift in the balance of risks had tilted toward labor market downside.
- Dissent to this decision should once again be limited to Gov Miran in favor of a 50bp cut.
- With limited new developments and official data to opine on, Chair Powell’s press conference will be eyed for affirmation that a December cut remains on track, as signalled by the most recent Dot Plot.
- He’s unlikely to give much away, but it would be surprise given the lack of data and relevant developments if he suggested that a further 2025 cut was in any greater doubt than it was 6 weeks earlier.
- Instead, we think focus in terms of action at this meeting will be on the balance sheet, with the Fed likely to announce an end to quantitative tightening amid diminishing reserve levels and nascent evidence of funding market pressures.
- We will also be watching for any news on the Fed’s communications framework, with an updated “Dot Plot” potentially unveiled at some point by year-end.
MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Oct 27
RATINGS: Moody's Lowers France's Outlook To Negative, Maintains Aa3 Rating
Moody's has lowered its outlook on France to negative from stable.
- Moody's was expected to at least lower the outlook, so this is not a surprise - there had been some risks perceived of a downgrade to A1 (from Aa3) in the domestic and foreign currency long-term issuer and domestic-currency senior unsecured ratings.
- Per the Moody's release: "The decision to change the outlook to negative reflects the increased risk that the fragmentation of the country's political landscape will continue to impair the functioning of France's legislative institutions. This political instability risks hampering the government's ability to address key policy challenges such as an elevated fiscal deficit, rising debt burden, and durable increase in borrowing costs, thus leading to a more rapid weakening in France's key fiscal metrics than we currently expect."
- Both S&P and Fitch have already downgraded France’s sovereign rating to the single-A bucket this year.
USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 1.4080 High Oct 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4016 @ 16:33 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 1.3979/3907 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3829 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3769 Low Sep 19
- SUP 4: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
USDCAD has pulled back from its recent highs. The trend condition is bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out, scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support lies at 1.3907, the 50-day EMA. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 1.3979.
