LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
Nov-02 06:23
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 03-Nov | 0930 | Oct | S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (f) |
| 03-Nov | 1200 | ---- | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 03-Nov | 2030 | ---- | BOE Mann Panels American Enterprise Institute |
| 04-Nov | 0930 | Oct | S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI |
| 04-Nov | 1215 | ---- | BOE Pill MonPol Report National Agency briefing |
| 08-Nov | 0001 | Oct | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 08-Nov | 0900 | ---- | BOE Pill Panels UBS European Conference |
| 08-Nov | 0930 | ---- | BOE Mann Panels SNB-FRB-BIS Event |
| 09-Nov | 1300 | ---- | BOE Haskel Speech at Digital Futures at Work |
| 10-Nov | ---- | ---- | House of Commons Recess Starts |
| 10-Nov | 0001 | Oct | RICS House Prices |
| 10-Nov | 0130 | ---- | BOE Ramsden Panels PIIE & LKY Conference |
| 10-Nov | 1310 | ---- | BOE Tenreyro Speaks at SPE Conference |
| 11-Nov | 0700 | Q3/Sep | GDP / Construction / Trade / Production / Services |
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GILTS: Likely to open higher after income tax cut reversal
Oct-03 06:19
- This week’s SONIA and gilt market opens are likely to see moves to the upside after the BBC reported that the Chancellor will announce a reversal of the plan to cut the rate of income tax from 45% to 40% for those earning over GBP150,000. Overall this makes no real difference to the fiscal numbers but shows that the PM and Chancellor are at least willing to dial back some of their plan in the light of the clear opposition (from both the public and within the party).
- We are still looking for a time for the Chancellor to make a speech today (he has one scheduled at 16:00BST but we expect an appearance earlier even if we only have a statement confirmed the income tax plan reversal). This will also increase the market’s hope that the “Medium-Term Fiscal Plan” and publication of the accompanying OBR forecasts due on 23 November will be pulled forward. This week will also see the Conservative Party Conference held through Wednesday.
- S&P affirmed the UK at AA but changed the outlook to negative, which may limit the rally in gilts a little. In terms of other UK-focused events this week we will have the release of the monthly Decision Maker Panel data for September on Thursday. We will also hear from MPC members Mann (on a panel on Monday evening on monpol) and Ramsden (at the Securities Industry Conference on Friday).
BUNDS: Underpinned pre cash open
Oct-03 06:18
- Bund had a little jump higher pre cash open on report that the UK Government is expected to reverse scrapping of 45% Tax rate.
- The contract remains underpinned since the cash open, as well as Equities.
- Resistance in Bund will be seen at 139.28, and support at 137.84.
- Bottom of the hour, sees Swiss CPI, other data of note will be manufacturing PMIs, but final reading for France, Germany, EU, UK and US.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Bostic. Williams and BoE Mann.
GBPUSD: Spikes over a big figure on the income tax reversal story
Oct-03 06:10
- GBPUSD jumped over one whole big figure on the BBC story that the decision to cut the 45% income tax rate would be reversed.
- Overall this makes no real difference to the fiscal numbers but shows that the PM and Chancellor are at least willing to dial back some of their plan in the light of the clear opposition (from both the public and within the party).
- GBPUSD hit a high of 1.1281 from around 1.1150 prior to the announcement and now trades at 1.1250 at the time of writing.
