LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 17-Nov | 1320 | --- | BOE Mann on DMP and MonPol |
| 18-Nov | 1300 | --- | BOE Pill Fireside Chat on MonPol |
| 18-Nov | 1700 | --- | BOE Dhingra on Income Growth and Consumption |
| 19-Nov | 0001 | Oct | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 19-Nov | 0700 | Oct | Consumer Inflation Report / Producer Prices |
| 20-Nov | 1100 | Nov | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 20-Nov | 1830 | --- | BOE Dhingra Speech on Trade and Tariffs |
| 21-Nov | 0001 | Nov | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 21-Nov | 0700 | Oct | Public Sector Finances / Retail Sales |
| 21-Nov | 0930 | Nov | S&P Manuf / Serv / Comp PMI flash |
| 25-Nov | 1100 | Nov | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 26-Nov | 1230 | --- | Chancellor Reeves to deliver UK Budget |
| 26-Nov | 1530 | --- | DMO to publish consultation agenda |
| 01-Dec | 0930 | Oct/Nov | BOE Lending to Individuals / M4 / S&P Manuf PMI (f) |
| 01-Dec | 1530 | --- | DMO to hold FQ4 consultations with investors / GEMMs |
| 02-Dec | 0001 | Nov | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 02-Dec | - | H2 | Financial Stability Report |
| 03-Dec | 0930 | Nov | S&P Global Services / Composite PMI (f) |
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EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 180.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 179.91 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
- RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 175.51 @ 07:18 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 175.00 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart
- SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart
- SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support
The trend structure in EURJPY is bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. First key support to watch lies at 175.00, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and the cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. A reversal higher would open 175.00, a Fibonacci projection.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply Daily
Germany will hold another auction today while Spain and France will hold auctions tomorrow. Yesterday the ESM held a syndication while the Netherlands, Italy and Germany held auctions. We pencil in issuance of E37.2bln for the week, up from E20.7bln last week. France announced its 2026 funding plan yesterday (see summary below). There is also the potential for a Slovakian syndication, but we think next week is slightly more likely.
- Germany will return to the market today to hold a 30-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102481) alongside E1.5bln of the 2.90% Aug-56 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D012).
- Cancelled auction: Greece has announced that it will not hold its scheduled auction today.
- Spain will then come to the market tomorrow to hold a Bono/Obli auction. On offer will be a combined E4.0-5.0bln of the 1.25% Oct-30 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012G34), the 2.55% Oct-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K61) and the on-the-run 10-year 3.20% Oct-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012P33).
- France will come to the market tomorrow to hold an MT OAT auction for E9.5-11.5bln. Both the on-the-run issues will be reopened: the 2.40% Sep-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XLW2) and the 2.70% Feb-31 OAT (ISIN: FR001400Z2L7) alongside the 2.50% May-30 OAT (ISIN: FR0011883966) and the 0% Nov-31 OAT (ISIN: FR0014002WK3).
- France will return to the market tomorrow with an IL OAT auction. On offer will be a combined E0.75-1.25bln of the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88), the 1.80% Jul-40 OATei (ISIN: FR0010447367) and the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181).
BTP TECHS: (Z5) Range Breakout
- RES 4: 121.93 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 121.73 High Jun 13 and a key resistance (cont)
- RES 2: 121.38 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.24 High Oct 14
- PRICE: 121.09 @ Close Oct 14
- SUP 1: 119.90 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 119.07 Low Sep 25
- SUP 3: 118.36 Low Sep 3 and key support
- SUP 4: 118.00 Round number support
BTP futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price is through a key resistance at 120.74, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. The breach also highlights a range breakout. This opens 121.38, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, support to watch lies at 119.90, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal a possible short-term reversal.
