LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Jun-18 05:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 19-Jun | 0001 | May | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 19-Jun | 0700 | May | Consumer inflation report / Producer Prices |
| 20-Jun | 1200 | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 20-Jun | 2000 | Question Time Leaders' Special | |
| 21-Jun | 0001 | Jun | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 21-Jun | 0700 | May | Retail Sales / Public Sector Finances |
| 21-Jun | 0930 | Jun | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 21-Jun | 1630 | BoE APF Sales Schedule for Q3 | |
| 24-Jun | 1100 | Jun | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 26-Jun | 1100 | Jun | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 26-Jun | 2100 | BBC Leaders Head-to-Head debate | |
| 28-Jun | 0700 | Q1 | GDP Second Estimate |
| 28-Jun | 0700 | Q1 | Quarterly current account balance |
| 01-Jul | 0930 | May | BOE M4 / Lending to Individuals |
| 01-Jul | 0930 | Jun | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 02-Jul | 0001 | Jun | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 03-Jul | 0930 | Jun | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services/Composite PMI |
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CANADA: CIBC See Core CPI Trend Giving BoC Comfort To Cut As Early As June
May-17 19:27
- CIBC forecast CPI inflation of 0.5% M/M (NSA) which sees a moderation from 2.9% to 2.7% Y/Y.
- “The levelling off in food prices also appears to have played a large role in bringing weaker monthly changes in the BoC’s trim and median measures of core inflation”.
- “That should be the case again in April, seeing the Y/Y rates of those measures ease further and keeping the 3 and 6-month annualized trends much more subdued than they were last year.”
- “While headline inflation remains above target, a continuation of the recent soft trend in core measures should provide the BoC the comfort it needs to gradually start reducing interest rates as early as the June meeting.”
US TSYS: Mildly Weaker Tsys Flirting with Technical Support
May-17 19:19
- Treasury futures continued to gradually extend session lows by the bell, fully unwinding Wednesday's post-CPI/Retail Sales related rally. The Jun'24 10Y futures are -10.5 to 109-05, just below initial technical support of 109-07+ (50-day EMA).
- Little data to trade off of Friday, the Conference Board leading indicator fell by more than expected in April, -0.6% M/M (cons -0.3) after -0.3% in March.
- Unscheduled Fed speak underscored the day's move as Fed Gov Bowman reiterated stance in keeping interest rates steady to allow restrictive policy to bring inflation down.
- Rate cut projections remain largely in-line with this morning's levels (*): June 2024 at -10% w/ cumulative rate cut -2.5bp at 5.313%, July'24 at -22% w/ cumulative at -8bp at 5.258%, Sep'24 cumulative -21.1bp, Nov'24 cumulative -29.2bp, Dec'24 -44.4bp.Looking ahead to next week, the minutes to the May 1 FOMC will be released next Wednesday.
US TSYS: Modest Bearish Hedging as Projected Rate Cut Pricing Cools
May-17 19:02
SOFR and Treasury option trade remained mixed Friday with better puts emerging in the former as underlying futures trade trade back to pre-CPI and Retail Sales levels. Rate cut projections remain largely in-line with this morning's levels (*): June 2024 at -10% w/ cumulative rate cut -2.5bp at 5.313%, July'24 at -22% w/ cumulative at -8bp at 5.258%, Sep'24 cumulative -21.1bp, Nov'24 cumulative -29.2bp, Dec'24 -44.4bp.
- SOFR Options:
- +10,000 SFRN4 94.68/94.75 put spds, 1.0 ref 94.885
- Over -45,000 (15k Blocked) SFRH5 96.00/96.50 call spds 7.5 vs. 95.38 to -.39/0.11%
- Block, +11,000 SFRM4 94.62 puts, 0.5 vs. 94.6675/0.05%
- +15,000 SFRV4 94.75/94.87/94.93/95.06 put condors, 2.5
- -2,000 SFRU4 94.87 straddles, 21.0-20.5
- Block, 15,000 SFRM4 94.75/95.00 1x2 call spds 0.0 ref 94.6925
- +4,000 SFRM4 94.62/95.00 call over risk reversals vs. 94.695/0.10%
- 1,000 SFRU4 94.62/94.75/94.81/94.88 broken put condors
- 1,800 SFRU4 94.62/94.75 put spds
- 2,000 SFRN4/SFRU4 94.68 put spds
- +5,500 0QH5 94.50/95.00 put spds, 6.0 ref 96.05
- Treasury Options:
- 2,500 TYM4 108 puts
- 2,500 TYM4 107/108/109 call flys
- 5,000 TYN4 112/TYU4 114 call spd
- 4,000 USU4 112/117 2x1 put spds ref 117-22
- 1,000 TYM4 108.75/109.25 3x2 put spds, 13 ref 109-13
- 1,500 FVM4 106.25/107 1x2 call spds, 5 ref 106-01
- 3,800 FVM4 105.75/FVN4 106.75 call spds
