LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Apr-19 05:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 19-Apr | 0700 | Mar | Retail Sales |
| 19-Apr | 1515 | BoE's Ramsden at Peterson Institute Conference | |
| 19-Apr | 1730 | BOE's Mann Panelist at Capital Flows Seminar | |
| 22-Apr | 1100 | Apr | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 23-Apr | 0700 | Mar | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Apr | 0900 | BOE's Haskel Panelist at Econometric Seminar | |
| 23-Apr | 0930 | Apr | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 23-Apr | 1215 | BOE's Pill Speech at University of Chicago | |
| 25-Apr | 1100 | Apr | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 26-Apr | 0001 | Apr | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 30-Apr | 0001 | Apr | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 30-Apr | 0930 | Mar | BOE M4/ Lending to Individuals |
| 01-May | 0930 | Apr | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 03-May | 0930 | Apr | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services & Composite PMI |
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US TSYS: Treasury Futures Edge A Touch Higher Ahead of FOMC
Mar-20 05:18
- Jun'24 10Y futures have done very little today, with volumes very low and ranges tight we made lows of 110-04 during the morning session and trade just of highs of 110-07 at 110-06+ up +02 since NY closed.
- Looking at technical levels: Initial resistance is seen at 110-26 (20-day EMA), while above here 110-30+ (Mar 14 high) yesterday’s move lower to 109-24+ and piercing of the bear trigger at 109-25+ (Feb 23 low) could signal further weakness and has opened up a potential retest of 109-14+ (Nov 28 low).
- There has been little in the way of headlines other than the US is weighing up sanctioning Huawei's chipmaking network
- Looking ahead: MBA Mortgage Applications later Today, while all eyes will be on the FOMC on Thursday.
AUSSIE BONDS: Subdued Session Ahead Of FOMC Decision
Mar-20 04:43
ACGBs (YM flat & XM +2.0) sit slightly richer after dealing in relatively narrow ranges in today’s Sydney session. With the domestic calendar empty today, trading has been all about consolidating yesterday’s post-RBA rally ahead of the FOMC Decision later today.
- Cash ACGBs are flat to 2bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 2bps higher at -23bps.
- Swap rates are 1-3bps lower.
- The bills strip is slightly mixed, with pricing +1 to -1.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed. Given that OIS pricing aligned with the unanimous consensus among Bloomberg analysts, expecting a status quo decision yesterday, minimal market reaction in front meetings was anticipated. Likewise, year-end easing expectations have only slightly softened to 38bps compared to 36bps before the decision.
- Where there has been a notable reaction has been in terminal rate expectations. Before yesterday's meeting, the anticipated terminal rate stood at the effective cash rate of 4.32%. However, following the RBA's decision to remove the explicit tightening bias, there has been a softening of 5bps to 4.27%.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar sees the February Employment Report along with Judo Bank PMIs (Mar P). Consensus expects a 40k increase in Jobs, with the Unemployment Rate falling from 4.1% to 4.0%.
OIL: Crude Range Trading Ahead Of Fed Decision
Mar-20 04:36
Oil prices have traded in a narrow range to be down moderately during APAC trading today but are still up more than 2% on the week. WTI is 0.2% lower at $82.57/bbl, close to the intraday high, and Brent is also down 0.2% to $87.25. The market is waiting for the Fed decision out later today. While it is widely expected to be on hold this month, concerns that rate cuts will be delayed and thus pressure demand have weighed on crude. The USD index is flat.
- Supply developments are being watched closely given geopolitical issues and the IEA’s shift to forecast a deficit this year.
- Bloomberg reported a 1.52mn barrel crude inventory drawdown last week, a lot more than expected, according to people familiar with the API data. While distillate stocks rose 500k, gasoline fell a further 1.6mn pointing to robust demand. The official EIA data is out later today.
- JP Morgan has estimated that Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have reduced its capacity by 900kbd and it could take weeks or even months for it to come back on line. As a result, Russia will increase its crude exports from western ports by almost 200kbd which may rise if there are further attacks. Lower refining demand in Russia would normally put downward pressure on oil prices, but the market has added a geopolitical risk premium as Ukraine continues to target energy infrastructure.
- Later the Fed decision and projections are announced (see MNI Fed Preview). Also, the ECB’s Lagarde, Lane and Schnabel all appear. In terms of data, UK CPI/PPI for February print.
