LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Apr-18 05:23
Date UK Period Event
18-Apr 1600 BOE's Greene with Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center
19-Apr 0700 Mar Retail Sales
19-Apr 1515 BoE's Ramsden at Peterson Institute Conference
19-Apr 1730 BOE's Mann Panelist at Capital Flows Seminar
22-Apr 1100 Apr CBI Industrial Trends
23-Apr 0700 Mar Public Sector Finances
23-Apr 0900 BOE's Haskel Panelist at Econometric Seminar
23-Apr 0930 Apr S&P Global Flash PMI
23-Apr 1215 BOE's Pill Speech at University of Chicago
25-Apr 1100 Apr CBI Distributive Trades
26-Apr 0001 Apr Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
30-Apr 0001 Apr BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
30-Apr 0930 Mar BOE M4/ Lending to Individuals
01-May 0930 Apr S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI
03-May 0930 Apr S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services & Composite PMI

Historical bullets

FOREX: Dollar Boosted By Dovish BoJ & RBA Signals

Mar-19 04:55

The BBDXY sits up close to 0.15%, last near 1239.4. Gains of close to 0.50-0.60% have been recorded against both JPY and AUD.

  • The main focus was on the BoJ outcome. In the event, the central bank removed NIRP and raised rates to 0.0-0.1%, while it also abandoned YCC, but kept bond purchases largely unchanged.
  • Importantly, the BOJ stated it will make "nimble responses," increasing its purchases, should long-term interest rates rise." Also, given the current outlook for economic activity and prices, the BOJ anticipates that accommodative financial conditions will be maintained for the time being," the board said.
  • The bond purchases point and still accommodative policy settings has weighed on the yen. From near 149.30 prior to the outcome, we have spiked close to 150.00, holding close to this level in recent dealings. Note BoJ Ueda's press conference is due later at 3:30pm Japan time.
  • For the AUD, the RBA removed its language around further rate hikes can't be ruled out, instead replacing it with the board would not rule anything in or out. RBA Governor Bullock is currently holding her press conference, but largely reiterating what the earlier statement said.
  • Governor Bullock played down any shift to neutral. Still, AUD/USD is close to session lows, last near 0.6530, off nearly 0.50%. Weaker equity tones in HK and China have has also likely weighed.
  • NZD/USD has been dragged lower, last near 0.6060/65, off around 0.35%. The AUD/NZD cross has moved away from recent highs of 1.0795 to 1.0765/70.
  • Looking ahead, there are US February housing and Canadian CPI data. ECB’s de Guindos speaks today too.

JGBS: Futures Higher After BoJ Ends NIRP, Scraps YCC But Signals Further Bond Buying

Mar-19 04:47

JGB futures are higher, +13 compared to settlement levels, after initially gapping lower on news that the BoJ had ended its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) and scrapped Yield Curve Control (YCC).

  • The BoJ hiked rates to 0.0% (lower bound) to 0.1% (upper bound) from negative territory. This is the first rise in interest rates since 2007.
  • The short-term rate will now be the primary monetary policy tool. Still, the central bank expects financial conditions to remain accommodative.
  • In terms of votes it was 7-2 to raise rates (to 0-0.1%), while JGB purchases will continue largely as before (in 8-1 vote). Currently the bank purchases around 6trln yen per month. It was a unanimous vote to end ETFs and J-REITS purchases. The bank will also gradually reduce the amount of CP and corporate bond purchases (looking to end such purchases in a year).
  • On the economy, the virtuous cycle between wages and prices has become more solid, thereby signifying the price stability target would be achieved.
  • The cash JGB curve has maintained its twist-flattening, pivoting at the 2s, with yields 1bp higher to 2bps lower. The benchmark 10-year yield is 2.4bps lower at 0.743% versus its YTD high of 0.801%.
  • The swaps curve has twist-steepened, with rates 2bps lower to 2bps higher. Swap spreads are mostly wider.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar is empty.

GOLD: Slightly Higher Ahead Of A Busy Week OF Central Bank Meetings

Mar-19 04:27

Gold is little changed in the Asia-Pac session, after closing 0.2% higher at $2160.36 on Monday.

  • It was a relatively subdued start to a busy week of central bank meetings, including the FOMC, BoJ, BoE and the RBA.
  • Nevertheless, bullion is holding near record highs after rising sharply since mid-February, a rally that was partially driven by expectations the Federal Reserve was moving closer to easing policy. FOMC dated OIS is currently indicating a 52% chance of a Fed cut in June.
  • According to MNI’s technicals team, the recent break above $2135.4, the Dec 4 high, reinforced bullish conditions and signaled scope for $2206.6 next, a Fibonacci projection. Short-term conditions are overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm support is at $2112.9, the 20-day EMA.