LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 15-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Consumer inflation report |
| 15-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Producer Prices |
| 15-Jan | 1630 | BOE's Taylor Speech on Inflation Dynamics and Outlook | |
| 16-Jan | 0700 | Nov | GDP/ Trade/ Services/ Production/ Construction |
| 17-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Retail Sales |
| 21-Jan | 0700 | Nov/Dec | Labour Market Survey |
| 22-Jan | 0001 | Dec | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 22-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Jan | 1100 | Jan | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 24-Jan | 0001 | Jan | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 24-Jan | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jan | 1100 | Jan | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 28-Jan | 0001 | Jan | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 30-Jan | 0930 | Dec | BOE M4/ Lending to Individuals |
| 03-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 05-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services PMI |
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 16-Dec | 700 | EU | ECB's Lagarde press conference with Bank of Lithuania |
| 16-Dec | 815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 16-Dec | 815 | EU | ECB's Lagarde speech on resilience amid geopolitical shift |
| 16-Dec | 830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 16-Dec | 830 | EU | ECB's Lagarde in panel on pillars of resilience |
| 16-Dec | 845 | EU | ECB's De Guindos remarks at Madrid Foro Empresarial |
| 16-Dec | 900 | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 16-Dec | 900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 16-Dec | 1630 | EU | ECB's Schnabel speech at CEPR symposium |
| 17-Dec | 900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 17-Dec | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Conditions/ Expectations Index |
| 17-Dec | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 17-Dec | 1000 | EU | ECB's Elderson at ECB Banking Supervision conference |
| 18-Dec | 900 | EU | ECB's Lane in fireside chat at MNI Connect Event |
| 18-Dec | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 18-Dec | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
EURUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 2: 1.0673 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0552/0630 20-day EMA / High Dec 06
- PRICE: 1.0518 @ 06:07 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 1.0425/0335 Low Nov 26 / 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0201 61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg
EURUSD maintains a softer tone and gains are considered corrective. Resistance at 1.0552, the 20-day EMA, is intact. A close above this average would signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery towards 1.0673, the 50-day EMA. An extension higher would allow for a continued unwinding of the recent oversold condition. Support at 1.0461, the Dec 2 low, has been pierced. A clear break would expose 1.0335, the Nov 22 low and bear trigger.
BUND TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 137.72 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 137.28 High Oct 2
- RES 2: 136.52/137.18 High Dec 6 / 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 135.41/136.01 20-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: 134.52 @ 05:44 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 134.39 Low Dec 13
- SUP 2 134.98 61.8% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 133.62 Low Nov 22
- SUP 4: 133.22 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
The current bearish cycle in Bund futures remains in play and Friday’s extension signals scope for a continuation of the bear leg. Price is trading at its recent lows and sights are on 133.98, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break of this level would strengthen the current downleg. For bulls, a reversal higher would highlight the end of the correction. First key resistance is 136.01, the Dec 12 high.
