US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 113-23 76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1
- RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 111-16+ @ 11:04 BST Aug 22
- SUP 1: 111-12 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-23+/08+ Low Aug 1 / Low Jul 15 & 16
- SUP 3: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
A bullish theme in Treasury futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade above support around the 50-day EMA, at 111-12. A clear break of this average would expose support at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, gains would refocus attention on 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 112-23 initially, the May 1 high.
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US TSY FUTURES: Mix Of Long Setting & Short Cover Seen Tuesday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting (TU, TY & UXY) and short cover (FV, US & WN) during yesterday’s uptick in futures, with the positioning swings effectively offsetting in DV01 terms.
| 22-Jul-25 | 21-Jul-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,379,505 | 4,372,097 | +7,408 | +276,874 |
FV | 6,980,491 | 6,993,798 | -13,307 | -570,484 |
TY | 4,806,787 | 4,789,046 | +17,741 | +1,166,791 |
UXY | 2,414,128 | 2,411,077 | +3,051 | +265,098 |
US | 1,784,238 | 1,788,438 | -4,200 | -576,405 |
WN | 1,944,199 | 1,951,451 | -7,252 | -1,311,333 |
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| Total | +3,441 | -749,458 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Recovery Extends
- In FX, EURUSD maintains a firmer tone having recovered from 1.1557, the Jul 17 low. Recent weakness between Jul 1 - 17 appears to have been a correction. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA , at 1.1534. A clear break of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. Note that trend indicators continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open 1.1829, the Jul 1 high and the bull trigger.
- GBPUSD continues to appreciate, extending the recovery from the Jul 16 low. Recent weakness resulted in a break of trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low. The breach is a bearish development, however, the latest bounce also signals a possible false break. Note that M/T trend indicators still highlight an uptrend. The next resistance to watch is 1.3577, 50.0% of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg. The bear trigger is 1.3365, Jul 16 low. A break would resume a bear theme.
- A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place despite the latest pullback - a correction. Short-term pivot support to monitor is 145.88, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. Recent strength resulted in a breach of resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high, and a move through key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. The break strengthens the bullish theme and opens 149.38, a Fibonacci retracement.
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