SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Intact For Now
Aug-01 05:32
- RES 4: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 107.251 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 107.192 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 107.155 Low Jul 28
- PRICE: 107.040 @ 06:10 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 107.010 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
The sell-off in Schatz futures between Jul 23 - 25, resulted in a break of key short-term support at 107.120, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. However, the contract did recover from the Jul 25 low and recent price patterns highlight a potential base. A resumption of gains would expose resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 107.192. The 50-day EMA is at 107.251. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 107.010, the Jul 25 low.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Jul-02 05:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 02-Jul | 1130 | ---- | BOE Taylor On Panel At Sintra Conference |
| 03-Jul | 0930 | Jun | Decision Maker Panel / Credit Conditions Surveys |
| 03-Jul | 0930 | Jun | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (Final) |
| 04-Jul | 0930 | Jun | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 04-Jul | 1600 | ---- | BOE Taylor Speech On Natural Interest Rate |
| 05-Jul | 1645 | ---- | BOE Bailey On Les Recontres Economiques Panel |
| 09-Jul | 1030 | Q2 | BOE Financial Stability Report |
| 10-Jul | 1600 | ---- | BOE Breeden On Climate Change |
| 11-Jul | 0700 | May | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
| 14-Jul | 0001 | Jun | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
| 15-Jul | 0001 | Jun | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 15-Jul | - | ---- | Mansion House Speech |
| 16-Jul | 0700 | Jun | Consumer inflation report / PPI |
| 17-Jul | 0700 | May/Jun | Labour Market Survey |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Jul-02 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 02-Jul | 0900 | EU | ECB de Guindos Chairs Sintra Panel |
| 02-Jul | 1000 | EU | Unemployment |
| 02-Jul | 1000 | EU | ECB Cipollone Chairs Sintra Panel |
| 02-Jul | 1130 | EU | ECB Lane Chairs Sintra Panel |
| 02-Jul | 1515 | EU | ECB Lagarde Gives Closing Sintra Remarks |
| 03-Jul | 0815 | ES | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Jul | 0845 | IT | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Jul | 0850 | FR | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Jul | 0855 | DE | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Jul | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 04-Jul | 0700 | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 04-Jul | 0745 | FR | Industrial Production |
| 04-Jul | 0800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 04-Jul | 0830 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 04-Jul | 0900 | IT | Retail Sales |
| 04-Jul | 0900 | EU | ECB Elderson Speech At IMF OEDNE/World Bank Meeting |
| 04-Jul | 1000 | EU | PPI |
JGBS: Cash Bond Twist-Flattener, 30Y Supply Tomorrow
Jul-02 05:17
JGB futures are weaker and at Tokyo session lows, -13 compared to settlement levels.
- (Bloomberg) -- "Japan will continue actively negotiating tariffs in good faith with the US for both countries' mutual benefit, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki says at a regular press conference on Wednesday."
- (Bloomberg) Japan’s 30-year bond auction on Thursday will likely see “modest to safe” results, according to Barclays Securities’ strategists Ayao Ehara and Shinichiro Kadota.
- Cash US tsys are ~1bp cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session. Wednesday's US data focus is on MBA Mortgage Applications at 0700ET, Challenger Jobs at 0730ET followed by ADP Employment Change at 0815ET. No scheduled Fed speakers. Thursday is a heavy data day with NFP added due to the Independence Day holiday closure on Friday.
- Cash JGBs have twist-flattened across benchmarks with yields 1bp higher to 1bp lower, pivoting at the 20-year. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.4bps higher at 1.408% versus the cycle high of 1.596%.
- Swaps are slightly mixed across maturities.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Weekly International Investment Flow and S&P Global Composite & Services PMI data alongside 30-year supply.
