AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Remains Above Support

Asked about today's dissents, Powell says it was "a good meeting" with participants putting "their positions out there". " "The majority of the Committee was of the view that inflation is a bit above target, maximum employment is at target. That calls for modestly restrictive, in my way of thinking, modestly restrictive stance right now."

• On whether the June SEP represents where the core of the Committee is, Powell doesn't exactly endorse it (which, recall, showed 50bp of cuts by year-end as the median): "I couldn't point to it six weeks later as expressing people's thoughts. You can't do that." He says they didn't prepare an updated SEP at this meeting "and I don't like to substitute in my own estimate of what the SEP might be. I will say we haven't made decisions about monitoring all of the incoming data and asking ourselves whether the federal funds rate is in the right place."

Powell notes the slowdown in private domestic final purchases in the GDP data today. But says "you do not see weakening in the labor market", though "downside risks to the labor market are certainly apparent." 

Powell says that he expects there is "much more" to come on the trade front that keeps uncertainties elevated, despite increasing clarity about the eventual "effective" rate of tariffs:

"It's been a very dynamic time for these trade negotiations, and lots and lots of events in the intermeeting period. We are still a ways from seeing where things settle down. We are getting clearly more and more information and I think at this point people's estimates, our estimates, outside estimates of the likely effective level of tariffs is not moving around that much at this point. But at the same time, there are many, many uncertainties left to resolve. So yes, we are learning more and more. It doesn't feel like we are very close to the end of that process. And that's not for us to judge, but it feels like there's much more to come as well, looking ahead."