US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Key S/T Resistance Remains Exposed

• In FX, EURUSD maintains a softer tone and the pair traded sharply lower Monday. Recent weakness appears corrective and key trend signals remain bullish. Note that a key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1086, remains intact. A clean break of this average would undermine the uptrend. A key resistance to watch is 1.1381, the May 2 - 6 high. Clearance of this level would signal the end of the correction.
• Recent weakness in GBPUSD is considered corrective. Tuesday’s gains highlight a possible reversal pattern - a bullish engulfing candle. If correct, the pattern signals the end of the corrective cycle. Key support to watch is 1.3095, the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the key resistance and bull trigger, at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend.
• The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. This corrective phase remains in play, for now. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.32, has been cleared, strengthening a bullish theme. The move higher has exposed 148.54, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg (pierced). A clear break of this level would also strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention 142.36, the May 6 low. Initial support is at 144.93, the 20-day EMA.

Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter) from a NPR interview released earlier today. See below for a quick transcription from the playback here. He sees underlying hard data suggesting a still solid economy, which whilst of note for one of the most dovish members of the FOMC, is less surprising having told the NY Times earlier this week that "'If we could get the dust out of the air, it would make sense to think that rates would be going down […] But the bar for action has to be high when there's so much uncertainty.' He also talks on data lags and the extra importance of listening to people in real time.

• Q: Why were April's numbers better than expected? 

• Goolsbee: “Some part of it is the official data, they only come out with a lag of a month or so. So we're still kind of holding our breath. And if consumers and businesses start freaking out a little bit about uncertainty and pull back on their spending, or pull back on their investment, you can get some downturns. When there are moments of a lot of dust in the air, like what we saw a bit in April, you can go into some of this paralysis, but it still takes some time for that to show up in the numbers.”

   

• Q: How does the Fed kind of move? You know when, when policies aren't settled and there's uncertainty still.
• Goolsbee: Goes back to data dog analogy; now is the time for sniffing for information. “Now we've got a bunch of noise that we're trying to figure out the through line, but if we can get past that, I feel like underneath there, that solid, hard data economy is still there.”

• Q:  Is it fair to say that if the American economy were a car, that even though the outside of the car may be looking a little scratched up under the hood the engine, everything looks okay?
• Goolsbee: Maybe, I guess so. It's important to remember that the Fed’s job is to be the steady hand, not respond to the daily gyrations either of the stock market or of policy pronouncements. And we've continued to get these numbers that at least suggest that it's going okay. It's just, I think, not realistic to expect businesses or central banks to be jumping to conclusions about long term things when you've got so much short term variability. It's just a very difficult environment.

• Q: What do you think the American people should kind of glean from these numbers, from what we've seen with inflation, is it something to be happy about, or do we still need to wait and see?
• Goolsbee: A little bit of both. You never want to make too much of any one month or even two months numbers, what I hear walking around, talking to folks, is lack of consistency, that if they can't count on what's happening, then they just can't act yet. They just got to sit on their hands. But the official data only come out with a lag. That's why it's at moments of transition extra important to get out and listen to the people in real time what they're seeing. 

• EU7b 5Y Fixed (Oct. 22, 2030) at MS+28 (guidance was MS+30 Area)
  • MNI had expected a E7bln size.
• Books above EU72b (including JLM interest): Leads
• Coupon: Annual, act/act, short first
• Settlement: May 21, 2025
• ISIN: BE0000365743
• Bookrunners: BNPP, Barclays (B&D), Citi, Natixis, SocGen
• Timing: May price today

Details as per Bloomberg