US TSY OPTIONS: TYQ5 113.00 Calls Blocked

In April, the Chicago Report™ asked firms “What are you immediately doing as a result of the tariff uncertainty?”.

• One third (32%) of respondents are implementing temporary surcharges, while 29% are freezing hiring.
• 21% of respondents are looking to switch suppliers, while 32% of respondents were unsure.
• 36% of respondents answered “Other”, with details ranging from inaction (until more clarity on what tariffs will be implemented is available) to creation of new teams to monitor risks.

• MNI APR CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER 44.6 VS MAR 47.6
• MNI CHICAGO: APR PRICES PAID 78.0 VS MAR 76.7
• MNI CHICAGO: APR EMPLOYMENT 37.6 VS MAR 37.2
• MNI CHICAGO: APR PRODUCTION 47.9 VS MAR 55.5
• MNI CHICAGO SURVEY PERIOD APR 1 TO 14

The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI slipped 3.0 points to 44.6 in April. This more than reverses March’s 2.1 point rise, but still leaves the index above January’s 39.5 reading. The index has been in contraction for seventeen consecutive months.

• The decrease was driven by a pullback in new orders and production, and to a lesser extent supplier deliveries. Order backlogs and employment rose relative to March.
• Production dropped 7.6 points to 47.9, almost fully unwinding March’s rise.
• New orders fell 7.0 points, the lowest since December 2024.
• Employment inched up 0.4 points to 37.6. This index has been below 40 for eight of the last twelve months.
• Order backlogs progressed 2.3 points.
• Supplier deliveries pared 1.4 points. The index has been above 50 for ten of the last twelve months.
• Inventories increased 17.0 points, potentially reflecting tariff front-loading. This was the highest level since November 2023, with 31% of respondents reporting larger inventories, up from 12% in March.
• Prices paid consolidated 1.3 points to 78.0, the highest level since August 2022.