US TSY OPTIONS: TYM6 112.50 Calls Bought Again

• RES 4: $5700.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $5654.3 - 2.500 proj of the Nov 18 - Dec 26 - 31‘25 swing  
• RES 2: $5595.5 - High Jan 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $5238.6/5419.1 - High Mar 10 / 2                        
• PRICE: $5008.1 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 18 
• SUP 1: $4967.9 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $4931.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $4843.5 - Low Feb 17
• SUP 4: $4655.7 - Low Feb 6

Gold is in consolidation mode and continues to trade below $5419.11, the Mar 2 high. The S/T outlook remains bullish following the recovery that started Feb 2. The metal has cleared all key retracement points of the sell-off between Jan 29 - Feb 2. This strengthens a bull theme and signals scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at $5595.5, the Jan 29 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at $4931.6, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: $125.19 - High Jun 14 ‘22 (cont) and a key resistance 
• RES 3: $121.88 - High Jun 15 ‘22 (cont) 
• RES 2: $120.08 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘22 - Apr ‘25 Bear leg
• RES 1: $110.45 - 76.4% of the Mar 9 - 10 sell-off
• PRICE: $101.82 @ 07:08 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: $95.20 - Low Mar 12    
• SUP 2: $87.01 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $76.68 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: $66.21 - Low Feb 17 

A bull wave in Brent futures remains intact, for now. The sharp pullback from the Mar 9 high - a correction - has allowed a recent extreme overbought trend condition to unwind. Key supports to monitor are $87.01 and $76.68, the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of this support zone would signal a possible trend reversal. A continuation higher near-term would open $110.45 next, a Fibonacci retracement.

• RES 4: 120.98 High Mar 3   
• RES 3: 120.68 High Mar 4 
• RES 2: 119.42 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 119.02 38.2% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 13 bear cycle 
• PRICE: 118.37 @ Close Mar 17
• SUP 1: 117.16 Low Mar 13       
• SUP 2: 117.01 1.618 proj of the Feb 27 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.68 1.764 proj of the Feb 27 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.14 2.000 proj of the Feb 27 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing

The sharp reversal lower in BTP futures from the Mar 10 high, highlights the fact that an impulsive and volatile bear cycle remains in play. Last Friday’s sell-off resulted in a breach of support at 117.42, the Mar 9 low. This confirms a continuation of the bear cycle and opens 117.01 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend is in an extreme oversold position, a recovery would allow this to unwind. Firm resistance is at 119.42, the 20-day EMA.