US TSYS: TY Tests Overnight Lows, Between Notable Technical Levels Ahead Of NFPs
Nov-20 11:51
Treasuries have seen a brief test of overnight lows as US desks filter in, with risk sentiment broadly supported since yesterday’s Nvidia earnings after the close. Today’s focus is clearly on the NFP September report, as part of a busy docket including a resumption of national-level jobless claims data and six different Fedspeakers all after payrolls.
- Cash yields are 0.5-2.2bp higher, led by 3s.
- The modest flattening sees curves away from recent steeps, with 5s30s at 103.2bp vs highs of ~105.5bp in the past two days being the highest since mid-Oct and before that Sept.
- TYZ5 touched session lows of 112-17+ (-04+) - currently 112-19 - and has seen reasonable cumulative overnight volumes of 390k for pre-payrolls.
- It has pulled away from resistance at 113-04+ (Nov 14 high) in what was small clearance of congestion around 113-02 since early November. Support meanwhile is seen at 112-11 (100-dma) and 112-07+ (trendline from May 22 low), just above a key 112-06 (Sep 25 low).
- Data: Delayed NFP September report (0830ET), Resumption of weekly national jobless claims (0830ET), Philly fed mfg Nov (0830ET), Existing home sales Oct (1000ET), KC Fed mfg Nov (1100ET)
- Fedspeak: Hammack (0845ET), Barr (0930ET), Cook (1100ET), Goolsbee (1240ET and 1800ET), Miran (1815ET) and Paulson (1845ET) - see Fed bullet.
- Coupon issuance: US Tsy $19bn 10Y TIPS re-open - 91282CNS6 (1300ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $110bn 4-wk, $95bn 8-wk bills (1130ET)
- Politics: White House Press Sec Leavitt press briefing (1300ET)
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilts Hold On To The Bulk Of Their Gains
Oct-21 11:22
- In the FI space, Bund futures continue to trade below last week’s high, however, a bull cycle remains intact. The impulsive nature of the latest rally and a fresh cycle high on Friday, paves the way for a test of the next key resistance 130.80, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that the contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is 129.20, the 20-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact following the latest strong impulsive rally. Recent gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The break strengthened a bull cycle and sights are on 93.30 next, a 1.236 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Note that the trend is overbought and a retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Firm support to watch lies at 91.51, the 20-day EMA.
SEK: EURSEK Pierces Support With Scandis Outperforming G10 Basket
Oct-21 11:20
- SEK outperforms the G10 basket alongside NOK this morning, despite little net movement in European equity futures and SEK swap rates. SEK already outperforms the G10 basket year-to-date, and conditions appear in place for this relative strength to extend.
- EURSEK is down 0.4%, piercing the October 7 low at 10.9392. Clearance of the Oct 7 low would expose more important support at 10.9036, the September 15 low. The cross has traded in a fairly contained 10.90 – 11.10 range since the end of August. Moving average studies are currently in a bear-mode setup, reinforcing current bearish conditions.
- We’ve previously highlighted several factors that could support continued SEK outperformance in the coming months, including an accommodative monetary policy stance, an expansionary 2026 fiscal budget aimed at stimulating household consumption and positive German/European defence spending spillovers.
- The median analyst surveyed by Bloomberg expects EURSEK at 11.00 at year-end, 0.5% above current spot levels. However, forecasts range from a low of 10.60 to a high of 11.20.
- Vols imply a ~46% probability of EURSEK ending the year below 10.90, compared to a ~25% probability of the cross ending the year above 11.10. This suggests the risks to the consensus median may be skewed to the downside.
- Important Swedish growth metrics are due next week, including September credit data and retail sales, and the October Economic Tendency Indicator. The Q3 flash GDP indicator is also due. July/August monthly GDP data suggests there are upside risks to the Riksbank’s 0.5% Q/Q Q3 projection, but as always we caution that the flash activity indicators are unreliable and revision prone.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Interview with Former BOE policymaker Andrew Sentance
Oct-21 11:14
- Former BOE policymaker Andrew Sentance looks at interest rates and inflation -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
