POLAND: Tusk & Macron To Discuss Proposed Post-War Ukraine Peacekeeping Mission
- French President Emmanuel Macron visits Poland today, with talks set to focus on the ongoing war in Ukraine. Bloomberg reported that Macron and Prime Minister Donald Tusk will discuss the potential deployment of European troops for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine once a ceasefire is reached. Separately, an EU diplomat confirmed this for POLITICO, suggesting that the peacekeeping force could be composed of 40,000 troops.
- Prime Minister Tusk announced that TVN and Polsat television stations will be added to the list of strategically important enterprises, which means that the government will be able to block their potential takeover. This came amid speculation that Warner Bros could sell off their stake in TVN to Hungarian and Czech investors, reportedly sympathetic to the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party.
- Business Insider reported that the government is planning to revamp the criteria for taking positions in the supervisory boards of state-owned enterprises. The planned changes are a consequence of a recent scandal surrounding a private university accused of selling MBA diplomas.
- NBP's Kotecki gave a round of interviews yesterday suggesting that Governor Glapinski's guidance did not reflect the MPC's consensus view. He later said that the central bank could cut rates by no more than 100bp next year, but most likely less than that.
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Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance
- RES 4: 1.4185 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘22 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
- PRICE: 1.3951 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 1.3851/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 1.3757 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
USDCAD is trading higher and sights are on the most recent trend peak of 1.3959, the Nov 1 / 6 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and confirm a clear breach of key resistance at 1.3946, the Aug 5 high. This would signal potential for a climb towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 2022 high and a key medium-term resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3843, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Structure
- RES 4: 0.6841 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 2: 0.6727 50.0% retracement of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6676/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7
- PRICE: 0.6550 @ 08:04 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 0.6513 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6472 Low Aug 6
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Last Wednesday’s sell-off resulted in a breach of 0.6537, the Oct 30 low and bear trigger, highlighting a resumption of the downtrend. This week’s move down reinforces the bearish theme. Sights are on 0.6490, a Fibonacci retracement point. Firm resistance is at 0.6676, the 50-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of it would highlight a possible reversal.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 94.11/94.20 range.
