TURKEY: UniCredit Expect Moody’s to Upgrade Turkey’s Credit Rating to B2
Jul-19 12:57
As a reminder, Moody’s may update Turkey’s sovereign credit ratings after hours today (Current Rating: B3; Outlook: positive).
- UniCredit expect Moody’s to upgrade its sovereign credit rating for Turkey to B2 and to keep its positive outlook. Since Moody’s upgraded the outlook to positive in January, the central bank has tightened its policy further and while the needed slowdown in domestic demand and improvement in underlying inflation were delayed due to expansionary policies ahead of local elections, recent data have signalled that adjustment is underway on these fronts.
- Moreover, the current-account deficit continued to narrow and the CBRT’s gross reserves have increased by USD 25bn since end-1Q24, while its net FX position improved by about USD 85bn in the same period, as foreign and local investors favoured Turkish financial assets.
- UniCredit expect to see additional rating upgrades from credit-rating agencies as Turkey’s macroeconomic imbalances are likely to improve further, especially in terms of flow data, with the help of more-prudent policy.
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EGB SYNDICATION: Cyprus 7-year EMTN: Priced
Jun-19 12:55
- Reoffer: 99.631 to yield 3.310%
- Spread set at MS+55bps (guidance was MS +60 bps area)
- Maturity: 27 June 2031
- Size: E1bln (in line with MNI expectations).
- Books closed in excess E9.3bln (ex JLM interest)
- Settlement: 27th June 2024 (T+6)
- HR: 105% vs 2.40% Nov-30 Bund (ref 100.021 + 91.6bp)
- ISIN: XS2849767202
- Coupon: Fixed, Annual, ACT/ACT
- Leads: Citi / Deutsche Bank (B&D / DM) / Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE / HSBC
- Timing: TOE 13:38BST / 14:38BST. FTT immediately.
From market source
US: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Unlikely To Make First Presidential Debate Stage
Jun-19 12:48
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appears unlikely to qualify for the first presidential debate, to be hosted by CNN on June 27, after multiple states declined to confirm his ballot access.
- The deadline to qualify is tomorrow and RFK doesn’t appear to have fulfilled either requirement for making the stage: Reaching a 15% vote-share in four high-quality national polls and gaining ballot access in enough states to add up to 270 electoral college votes – the minimum to win the presidency.
- CNN noted on Saturday: "Though not impossible in Kennedy’s case, it is less likely that candidates other than Biden and Trump will meet those requirements. Kennedy has received at least 15% in three qualifying polls so far and is currently on the ballot in six states, making him currently eligible for 89 Electoral College votes."
- RFK’s campaign will likely accuse states of dragging their feet on verifying the signatures he has submitted for his ballot access, although states are under no legal obligation to complete the process hastily.
- Reuters notes that Kennedy also filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission in May alleging that CNN "illegally" demanded that Kennedy meet "different criteria" to participate in the debate.
- RFK’s absence from the stage will be welcomed by both Biden and Trump although it is unclear from whom he is likely to siphon more votes. The debate will be the first time Trump and Biden have faced-off against each other since the 2020 presidential debates.
GILTS: Block trade
Jun-19 12:45
Gilt block trade, suggest seller:
- G U4 ~1.5k at 98.50.
