EM CEEMEA CREDIT: TURKEY: REPARES 30B SUPPORT PACKAGE FOR MANUFAC

• The German Bund remains elevated despite showing that it is in the red and drifting through session low going post the Cash open.
• The April high of 132.03 has provided the resistance Yesterday, but also overnight, printed a 132.01 high Yesterday and 131.93 so far Today.
• Donald Trump said that he had no intention in firing Powell, and has now also said that he will be "very nice" to China in any trade talks, this has provided the Gap higher in Equities, while the impact has been more limited in Govies ahead of Today's Data.
• Initial support in Bund will be seen at 131.46, Yesterday's low.
• Main focus this Week on the Data front is Today, with the prelim PMIs.
• SUPPLY: Germany €4bn Bund 10yr (equates to ~33.2k Bund) could weigh, US sells $30bn of 2yr TIPS and $70bn of 5yr Notes.
• SYNDICATION: Austria 2029, 2039, 2053.
• SPEAKERS: A packed day for Speakers, Today includes, BoE Pill, Bailey, Breeden, ECB Knot, Lane, Villeroy, Cipollone, Fed Goolsbee, Musalem, Waller, Hammack, Kugler.

• RES 4: 5773.25 High Apr 2    
• RES 3: 5639.32 50-day EMA        
• RES 2: 5528.75 High Apr 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 5425.57 20-day EMA                             
• PRICE: 5401.75 @ 07:15 BST Apr 23   
• SUP 1: 5098.16 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce                      
• SUP 2: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
• SUP 3: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing 

A reversal higher in S&P E-Minis on Apr 9 highlighted the start of a correction. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and gains have allowed this to unwind. The contract remains below important resistance points and the trend condition is bearish. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 4832.00, the Apr 7 low and bear trigger. Initial resistance to watch is 5425.57, the 20-day EMA.

Austria is due to hold a syndication today; Germany and Italy are both still due to hold auctions this week while Slovakia and Germany both held auctions yesterday. There is also the potential for a Finnish syndication in upcoming weeks, although the timing of these are more uncertain than usual given the recent market volatility. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E22.3bln, down from E34.0bln last week.

For the full PDF and a look ahead to next week please click here.

• Austria will come to the market in the “near future” for a triple tranche syndicated tap with the 2.50% Oct-29 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3EPP2), the 3.20% Jul-39 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3D3Q8) and the 3.15% Oct-53 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A33SK7) all on offer.
  • We expect a transaction today with a E5-7bln combined size. We had expected an Austrian syndication in April, so the timing is not a huge surprise to us.
• This morning, Germany will return to the market to issue E4bln of the 10-year 2.50% Feb-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z049).
• To conclude the week, Italy will hold a BTP Short Term auction tomorrow. As expected there will be a reopening of the on-the-run 2.55% Feb-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005633794) for E2.5-3.0bln.
  • Note that the BTPei line has been cancelled due to the syndicated launch of the May-56 BTPei via syndication.