EM CEEMEA CREDIT: TURKEY: Dec budget deficit

• RES 4: 1.4416 2.0% 10-dma envelope  
• RES 3: 1.4327 2.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4296 2.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• PRICE: 1.4224 @ 08:01 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 1.4084/3955 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• SUP 2: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
• SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17

USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and last week’s gains reinforce the current bullish theme. The pair has cleared 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, to confirm resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4246 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.4084, the 20-day EMA.

European equity index futures a little lower into the cash open

• Euro Stoxx 50: -0.20%
• DAX: -0.03%
• CAC 40: -0.42%
• FTSE MIB: -0.17%
• FTSE 100: -0.12%
• SMU: -0.05
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures through Thursday & Friday lows to hit the lowest level seen since the middle of last week.
• Headwinds from soft Chinese retail sales data & a downtick in Chinese equity benchmarks applied weight overnight.
• The CAC 40 underperforms after Moody’s one-notch off-cycle downgrade of France’s sovereign credit rating.
• Technically, a bull cycle in Euro Stoxx 50 futures remains intact and price continues to trade closer to its recent highs.
• The contract has recently breached the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a bullish theme and note that 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, has also been cleared. Sights are on 5015.00 next, the Oct 29 high.
• Key support is 4699.00, the Nov 19 low. Initial support to watch lies at 4902.90, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 0.6733 High Oct 13  
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger              
• RES 2: 0.6538 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 0.6451 20-day EMA5
• PRICE: 0.6372 @ 07:53 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 0.6337 Low Dec 11
• SUP 3: 0.6300 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 
• SUP 4: 0.6259 1.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing 

The trend direction in AUDUSD remains down and last week’s extension reinforces the current bearish theme. The move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 0.6259 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6451, the 20-day EMA.