TURKEY: CBRT Raise Year-End Inflation Estimate to 44%

Nov-08 08:13
  • Turkey’s central bank raised its 2024 inflation forecast to 44% from 38%, CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan said at the presentation of the central bank’s latest inflation report. The 2025 forecast was revised higher to 21% from 14%, bringing both estimates more in-line with sell-side forecasts.
  • During the presentation, Karahan said the main inflation trend is improving but at a slower than expected. He added that the tight monetary policy stance will continue (even if the cutting cycle starts).
  • Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek met with Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing in Beijing, Dunya report. Following the visit, Simsek said the sides decided to increase investments between the two countries to finance infrastructure investments, and to strengthen cooperation in the fields of energy, tourism, civil aviation and agriculture.
  • Hurriyet report that President Erdogan addressed the EU at a meeting in Budapest, saying, “There is no reasonable explanation for the obstruction for years of the accession process of a candidate country like Turkey, which makes significant contributions to the welfare and security of the continent.”

Historical bullets

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call fly buyer

Oct-09 08:03

0RZ4 98.25/98.50/98.75c fly, bought for 2.5 in 5k.

EQUITIES: Paring losses

Oct-09 07:52
  • VGZ4 slowly recovers back towards flat on the day, down 6 points right now.
  • Although the Emini underperforms, the bigger picture is that the Index remains close to its all time record high of 5830.00.
  • Cash SPX was just circa 10 points off the all time record high Yesterday.

OPTIONS: Expiries for Oct09 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

Oct-09 07:50
  • EUR/USD: $1.0900-10(E748mln), $1.1000(E789mln)
  • USD/JPY: Y144.75($1.4bln), Y146.00($614mln), Y147.00($960mln), Y147.35-50($1.2bln), Y150.00-20($948mln)
  • EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8430(E544mln)
  • AUD/USD: $0.6625(A$648mln)
  • NZD/USD: $0.6050(N$1bln), $0.6175-85(A$633mln)