US TSYS: Tsy Yields Inch Higher, Focus on Tariffs Continue
Mar-27 19:38
- Treasuries look to finish moderately lower for the most part, underlying focus remains on tariffs after President Trump announced a 25% tariffs on auto imports last night - starting next week.
- Tsy futures see-sawed off late overnight lows after weekly claims come out near in-line with expectations, continuing claims lower than expected while the prior was also down-revised. GDP near expectations, Personal Consumption a little lower than expected as are Wholesale/Retail Inventories.
- Pending home sales ticked up to 72.0 in February from 70.6 in January, per the NAR's index. This represents a slightly better-than-expected rebound from January's all-time low, but at still moribund levels (the index's construction implies sales were 28% below the levels of 2001 when the series begins).
- TYM5 currently 110-13 last (-5) - well within the session range after the $44B 7Y note auction (91282CMT5) tailed 0.6bp with 4.233% high yield vs. WI of 4.227%. Initial technical support below at 110-06.5/06 (50-day EMA/Intraday low).
- Curves twisting steeper with the short end outperforming throughout the session (2s10s +4.203 at 37.307, 5s30s +2.302 at 62.685 vs. 63.866 -- the steepest level since early January 2022.).
- Today marked value-date month- and quarter end in FX markets, and despite the signals pointing to US corporate demand for dollars, the USD index sits weaker on the session, declining 0.25% on the session as we approach the APAC crossover.
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USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
Feb-25 19:30
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 153.54 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 152.34 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 150.74 High Feb 21
- PRICE: 148.89 @ 16:47 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 148.57 Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: 148.19 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
- SUP 4: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
USDJPY bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair traded to new pullback lows Tuesday. This weakness pushed prices through key support at 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low, to strengthen the bearish condition and pave the way for an extension towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 152.34, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Feb-25 19:27
SOFR & Treasury option volume remained heavy Tuesday, leaning towards upside 10Y calls (113k May'25 10Y 111.5 calls and 75k TYJ5 110.5 calls overnight) with some chunky two-way put skew plays in the second half. Underlying futures well bid, TYH5 climbing back to mid-December levels w/ 110-20 high, yield hits 4.2811% low. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 steady to mixed vs. morning levels (*) as follows: Mar'25 steady at -0.7bp, May'25 at -7.6bp (-8.2bp), Jun'25 at -21.1bp (-20.7bp), Jul'25 at -29.1bp (-28.6bp).
- SOFR Options:
- +5,000 SFRK5/SFRM5 95.68/95.75/95.81/95.87 put condor strip, 2.5 total ref 95.915
- Block, +3,000 SFRM5 96.00/96.25 2x3 call spds, 1.0 net vs. 95.895
- +5,000 2QJ5/2QK5/2QM5 96.25/96.50/96.75 call fly strip, 13.5 total
- -20,000 0QM5 96.37/97.00 call spds 12.0 over 95.37/95.62 put spds, ref 96.29
- -1,500 SFRH6 96.25 straddles, 78.5 ref 96.255
- +2,000 SFRZ5 96.18 straddles, 63.0 ref 96.18
- -15,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.87 call spds 3-2.75 over SFRZ5 95.50 puts & SFRM5 96.00/96.50 call spds
- -8,000 0QH5 95.93/96.06/96.18/96.43 call condors, 1.0 ref 96.26
- +2,000 SFRM5 95.87 straddles, 24.5 ref 95.885
- +10,000 SFRK5 95.81 puts 5.5 over SFRK5 95.93/96.06/96.12 call flys
- +30,000 SFRZ5 95.12/95.62/96.12 put flys, 17.0
- +12,000 SFRM5 96.25/96.87 call spds, 3.0 ref 95.88
- -2,500 SFRZ5 95.68/95.93 put spds, 9.75 ref 96.19
- 5,000 0QM5 96.50/97.00 call spds vs 3QM5 96.37/96.87 call spds, 0.5 3QM5 sold over
- -30,000 SFRJ5 96.25/97.00 call spds, 2.0 vs. 95.885/0.11%
- Block, 17,500 SFRM5 96.25/96.87 call spds, 3.0 ref 95.885
- over 12,400 SFRJ5 95.75 puts, 1.5 ref 95.885
- 3,000 SFRK5 96.00/96.12 call spds 1.75 ref 95.885
- 3,000 SFRZ5 97.00/97.50 call spds, 4.5
- 6,600 SFRN5 96.50/97.00 call spds
- +7,500 SFRM5 95.75 puts, 4.25 ref 95.89
- Treasury Options:
- Block: +38,000 TYK5 108.5 puts, 21 vs. -15,000 TYK5 112 calls, 34 and -10,000 TYJ5 112 calls 15 vs 24,000 TYH5 110-16
- -30,000 TYK5 109/111 put over combos at 13 vs. 110-07/0.71%
- -15,000 wk1 TY 110.75/111.25/111.5/112 call condors, 5.0
- -6,000 TYJ5 110.25/110.5 strangle, 119
- 5,000 TYK5 111/112 call spds, 20 ref 110-14
- over +113,000 TYK5 111.5 calls from 36-40 ref 110-07.5 to -10
- over +75,500 TYJ5 110.5 calls 37-44, kicked off w/ +50k at 37 ref 110-08
- 30,000 TYJ5 108.5/109 2x1 put spds
- over -30,000 TYJ5 108.5/109 2x1 put spds, 2 legs over/2 net
- 20,000 TYJ5 106/107 put spds 1.0 ref 110-08.5
- 3,500 TYJ5 108 puts, 5 vs. 4,600 TYK5 105.5 puts, 3
- 2,000 TYJ5 110/111 call spds, 22
- +5,000 USJ5 117/119.5 call spds, 52
- +2,500 FVJ5 107 puts, 20.5 ref 107-10
PIPELINE: Late Corporate Bond Roundup: $14.7B to Price, $34.4B on Week
Feb-25 19:09
$14.7B to Price Tuesday, $34.4B total on week
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 02/25 $5B #Citigroup $2.25B 4NC3 +70, $750M 4NC3 SOFR, $2B 31NC30 +105
- 02/25 $2.75B #State Street Corp $1.35B 3Y +45, $650M 5Y +60, $750M 11NC10 +85
- 02/25 $1.8B #Southern Co 30NC10 6.375%
- 02/25 $1.25B #200 Park Funding Trust 30Y +120
- 02/25 $1B #Dow Chemical $400M 10Y +105, $600M 30Y +140
- 02/25 $900M #Caterpillar $450M 3Y +33, $450M 3Y SOFR+52
- 02/25 $750M #Ameriprise 10Y +95
- 02/25 $750M #KeyCorp 6NC5 +98
- 02/25 $500M *Emerson Electric WNG 10Y +70
- 02/25 $Benchmark Kenya 11Y investor calls
