US: Trump’s Support Among Independents Has Eroded Significantly - AP-NORC

• RES 4: 1.3868 High Jan 27 and a key bull trigger    
• RES 3: 1.3814 High Jan 30
• RES 2: 1.3701 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 31 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3658 High May 01
• PRICE: 1.3518 @ 16:06 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 1.3483 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.3381 Low Apr 13 
• SUP 3: 1.3287/3159 Low Apr 8 / Low Mar 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3125 Low Nov 26 ‘25

GBPUSD is in consolidation mode and continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The short-term outlook remains bullish. A resumption of gains would open 1.3701, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch is 1.3483, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would highlight a bearish development and signal a stronger short-term reversal. This would open 1.3381, the Apr 13 low.

• 5,000 USM6 112.5/113.5/114.5 call flys, 6 ref 112-03

• Resilient price action for the Australian dollar has been a key feature of today’s G10 FX session. The late bounce off the lows for the major equity indices has assisted AUDUSD to fresh session highs and the best levels of the week above 0.7260.
• The grind higher for the pair narrows the gap to the cycle peak, located at 0.7278. Moving average studies are highlighting a dominant uptrend and scope is seen for an extension towards 0.7343, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low.
• In the crosses, GBPAUD has been extending the break below 1.87 and is now pressuring 1.86 to the downside, while 1.8589 remains a key objective. Both AUDNZD and EURAUD have just reached fresh cycle highs and lows respectively.
• The Norwegian krone also continues its impressive recent upswing. NOKSEK has pushed through resistance at 1.0139 on Wednesday, up 0.45% on the session at 1.1062 as we approach the APAC crossover. There hasn't been an obvious fundamental driver for today's rally, with oil/gas futures relatively rangebound and rate spread divergence also contained. Bullish technical conditions instead remain dominant, with the next topside targets likely to be round numbers at 1.02 and 1.03.
• USDJPY spent the session hovering just below the 158.00 mark, where an important cluster of resistance resides. Not only are there two highs from last week that were put in just before the second bout of intervention, but both the 20- and 50-day EMA’s intersect just above the big figure.
• Slow but consistent price action was on display for EURUSD, as the general dollar bid weighed further on the pair. The move this morning saw spot close the gap to the 50-day EMA, currently intersecting at 1.1697. It represents an important short-term pivot level, and a clear breach of it is required to suggest scope for a stronger short-term reversal.
• The first estimate of UK Q1 GDP is due tomorrow, before US retail sales and jobless claims data are scheduled. A reminder that the presence of Ascension Day will thin out liquidity on Thursday as many Europeans take the day off.