US: Trump's Declining Approval On Economy Flashes Midterm Warning For GOP

• Amid the relatively stable price action for oil on Wednesday, there has been subdued sentiment in currency markets, allowing the dollar index to consolidate at the recently depressed levels, around 98.00.
• The favourable backdrop for equities continues to underpin solid gains for the Australian dollar, which is the standout performer during today’s session. AUD is narrowing the gap to prior cycle highs against the dollar at 0.7187, but also performing well in a number of crosses ahead of Thursday’s labour market report.
• EURAUD has fallen to a three-week low below 1.65, and this weakness has extended through the US session to touch session lows at 1.6462, while GBPAUD is back below 1.90, having held 50-day EMA resistance well earlier in the week.
• Elsewhere, AUDCHF has risen 0.54% to place pressure on the 0.56 handle again. A close above this mark would be the first since March 2025, notable given we have the SNB minutes tomorrow where the discussion around FX intervention and the committee’s more forceful tone will be scrutinised.
• EURJPY has seen fresh cycle highs of 187.64 on Wednesday, extending the recent breakout above key medium-term resistance at 186.87. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the technical uptrend, with sights on 188.15 next, a Fibonacci projection. Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama was on the wires late in the session, reiterating the close discussions with the US treasury on the currency markets.
• Alongside AU employment, China Q1 GDP growth data is scheduled, before UK GDP and final readings for Eurozone inflation. The SNB and ECB will both publish the minutes of the March meetings, while in the US, Philly fed business outlook, weekly jobless claims and IP data will all cross.

ECB’s Nagel, towards the hawkish end of the Governing Council, said there isn’t currently enough clarity on what the ECB will decide at its April decision but a lot can change between now and then. He echoes President Lagarde yesterday in seeing developments somewhere between the baseline and adverse scenarios, part of broader Lagarde remarks that had trimmed hawkish ECB pricing. There is currently just 6bp of hikes priced for April (helped by the MNI Sources piece from Apr 9) and instead a 25bp hike almost fully priced for June (dampened from 27bp before Lagarde yesterday). 

• Nagel speaking on Bloomberg TV: “I would say there is not enough clarity what will happen in April [at the ECB’s meeting]. Two weeks can bring a lot of new information and we will take that into account.”
• The situation is “very delicate” despite some more positive signs in the last week.
• “Inflation seems to be well anchored, but this can change. So it’s really too early to say that we are on safe ground. It’s a very shaky situation.”
• “I would say we are somewhere in between our baseline scenario and our adverse scenario. Now we have find out where it’s going, if it goes back to the baseline scenario I’m a very happy person.”

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/15 $10B #Morgan Stanley $2.5B 4NC3 +78, $500M 4NC3 SOFR+97, $3.25B 6NC5 +92, $3.75B 11NC10 +102
• 04/15 $Benchmark JP Morgan 4NC3 +63, 4NC3 SOFR, 6NC5 +73, 11NC10 +87
• 04/15 $2.75B #EDF $1.25B 10Y +105, $1B 30Y +130, $500M 40Y +145
• 04/15 $2B #AIIB 5Y WNG SOFR+32
• 04/15 $1B *Omers WNG 5Y SOFR+48
• 04/15 $900M #Whitehaven $450M each: 5.5Y +235, 8Y +275
• 04/15 $825M Sotheby's 5NC2 8.25%a
• 04/15 $800M Herbalife 7NC3 7.75%a
• 04/15 $750M #Allianz PerpNC9 6.5%
• 04/15 $650M #CIMIC 10Y +183
• 04/15 $Benchmark Republic of Turkiye 5Y 6.75%a
• 04/15 $Benchmark British Colombia 5Y SOFR+52a