US: Trump's Approval Rating Ticks Up Ahead Of New Data On Signal Leak/Tariffs
President Donald Trump’s approval rating ticked up slightly this week but remains underwater, according to the Silver Bulletin tracker. In light of this week’s tariff announcement - and the major scandal over the Signal chat leak - Trump’s approval rating could be squeezed further in the coming days.
- Nate Silver noted this week: “A fellow Substacker messaged me the other day to ask why President Trump’s approval rating had been so resilient despite problems in the economy and elsewhere. I argued that it hadn’t been, really. In our approval rating tracker, Trump started out at a +11.6 net approval rating, a much better opening number than in his first term. But now, he’s in the red at -2.2. So there’s actually been a fair amount of movement.”
- The centrist think tank Third Way issued a memo arguing that Trump is vulnerable on the economy. The memo states: "We urge Democrats to continue to filter out the noise and highlight how Trump is threatening our economic livelihood. Amid dozens of red flashing lights on the economy, there is a clear signal for policymakers: Democrats must be relentless in assigning blame for the Trump Slump."
Figure 1: President Trump Approval Rating
Source: SilverBulletin
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FED: Richmond's Barkin: Makes Sense To Stay Modestly Restrictive
Richmond Fed President Barking (non voter in 2025) sounds cautiously optimistic on inflation dynamics in his latest speech, but appears to remain open-minded on the next move: "it makes sense to stay modestly restrictive until we are more confident inflation is returning to our 2 percent target."
- This is slightly different from his previous commentary on restrictive policy but appears to amount to largely the same cautious approach (on Feb 5 he said "moderately restrictive...I don't think we are hugely restrictive").
- The overall message: "I recognize the fight against inflation has been long, but it is critical that we remain steadfast....It’s hard to know how policies will shake out. ...it’s hard to make significant monetary policy changes amid such uncertainty. So, I prefer to wait and see how this uncertainty plays out and how the economy responds...all this uncertainty argues for caution as we look to wrap up the inflation fight. If headwinds persist, we may well need to use policy to lean against that wind."
- In an apparent nod to potentially having to hike rates ("If headwinds persist, we may well need to use policy to lean against that wind”) he appears to be talking more about longer-term inflation dynamics including demographics, but it’s ambiguous if he is referring to reversing the current easing cycle.
US TSY FUTURES: March'25/June'25 Roll: Heaviest Volume Yet, June Leads Friday
The latest Tsy quarterly futures from March'25 to June'25 below. Overall percentage complete largely between 75-80% with June taking lead quarterly this Friday. Current roll details:
- TUH5/TUM5 appr 2,098,500 from -7.5 to -6.5, -7.0 last, 75% complete
- FVH5/FVM5 appr 3,903,800 from -4.75 to -3.5, -4.5 last, 76% complete
- TYH5/TYM5 appr 3,032,400 from -1.0 to 0.00, -0.75 last, 81% complete
- UXYH5/UXYM5 appr 1,307,700 from 3.5 to 4.5, 3.5 last, 78% complete
- USH5/USM5 appr 685,300 from 5.25 to 8.25, 7.5 last, 74% complete
- WNH5/WNM5 appr 629,200 from 3.5 to 4.5, 4.0 last, 77% complete
- Reminder, March futures won't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on March 20, 2s and 5s on March 31.
EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 0.8378 High Feb 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8361 50.0% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8335 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8321 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8301 @ 16:42 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 0.8265/8248 Low Feb 21 / 3 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
EURGBP continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A resumption of weakness would expose the key short-term support at 0.8248, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a short-term bearish condition. Note that the early February bounce does highlight a possible bullish reversal theme. Clearance of 0.8378, the Jan 6 high and a key short-term pivot resistance, would be a positive development for bulls.
