US: Trump's Approval Declines Among "Stronghold Communities"

• At least $21.69B corporate debt launched Monday - Intel & Walmart leads supply
• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/27 $6.5B #Intel $1B 5Y +75, $1B 7Y +88, $2.25B 10Y +100, $1.75B 30Y +120, $500M 40Y +130
• 04/27 $4.25B #Walmart $650M 3Y +20, $350M 3Y SOFR+40, $1B 5Y +25, $1.25B 7Y +33, $1B 10Y +43
• 04/27 $3.25B #HUT 8 16.55Y +185
• 04/27 $1.75B #American Express 4NC3 +62
• 04/27 $1.5B #Philip Morris $750M each 3Y +43, 10Y +75
• 04/27 $1.14B #American Airlines: $905M 12.5Y 5.25%, $235M 9Y 5.75%
• 04/27 $1B #Ally Financial PerpNC5 7.1%
• 04/27 $750M #CBRE Services 10Y +105
• 04/27 $700M *Kookmin $300M 3Y SOFR+48, $400M 5Y +33
• 04/27 $600M #Korea Expressway 5Y +37
• 04/27 $500M #Quest Diagnostics WNG 10Y +82
• 04/27 $Benchmark Guardian Life 7Y +78
• 04/27 $Benchmark HCA Bank 5Y +89, 7Y +90, 10Y +100

Political consultant Bruce Mehlman writes on Substack, “Six months ago prediction markets gave Democrats a 58% change of capturing the House and 27% chance of winning the Senate. Today the quoted odds are 86% (House) & 50% (Senate).”

• Mehlman continues, “Midterm elections tend to be referendums on the sitting Administration, with the President’s job approval consistently correlating to his party’s outcome in the House. President Trump’s current job approval is 41% — below the 44% approval he enjoyed heading into the 2018 midterms (where the GOP lost 41 seats and control) and roughly the same as President Biden’s approval before the 2022 midterms (where Democrats lost control of the House though only 9 seats). While there are far fewer competitive seats in 2026 than in 1994, 2010 or 2018, Democrats only need to net +3 seats to regain control.”
• Reuters reports on a new survey, “A clear majority of Americans blame President Donald Trump for surging gasoline prices, which is weighing on his Republican Party ​ahead of November's congressional midterm elections.... Some 58% of voters, including one in five Republicans and two-thirds of independents, said they would be less likely to support candidates in ​the November 3 midterms who support Trump's approach to the conflict with Iran.”

Figure 1: 2026 Midterm Election Odds

Source: Bruce Mehlman, Substack

• RES 4: 1.3814 High Jan 30    
• RES 3: 1.3701 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 31 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3635 High Feb 17
• RES 1: 1.3599 High Apr 17 
• PRICE: 1.3553 @ 17:03 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 1.3433 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.3381 Low Apr 13 
• SUP 3: 1.3287/3159 Low Apr 8 / Low Mar 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3125 Low Nov 26 ‘25

A short-term bull cycle in GBPUSD remains intact and the recent pullback appears - for now - to be a flag formation. This is a bullish continuation pattern. Initial support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3433. A clear break of it would be a bearish development and reinforce a death cross in MA studies (50-dma < 200-dma), which highlights a broader M/T downtrend. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.3599, the Apr 17 high.