US: Trump's Approval Continues To Slide Amid Iran War Fallout/Economic Concerns

G. Elliot Morris at Strength in Numbers reports, “In our Strength In Numbers/Verasight polling, Americans say by a margin of 19 points that they disapprove rather than approve of how he’s handling trade and tariffs. President Trump gets a worse grade on tariffs than he does on handling foreign policy, jobs and the economy, or his job overall.”

• Morris notes, “A -20 margin nationally is pretty devastating electorally. My MRP analysis showed Trump underwater on trade in 40 out of 50 states. These 40 states are worth 80 votes in the Senate and 483 votes in the Electoral College (486 when you count Washington, D.C.)”
• Morris adds, “And it’s not just my polling showing this. A new survey from ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos found 64% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s tariff handling. CNN/SSRS found 62% disapproval in January.”
• Silver Bulletin notes that Trump's disapproval rating on trade and tariffs ticked up last week to close to a second-term high of 57.7%.

Figure 1: Estimated % of US Adults who Approve of Trump’s Handling of Trade

Source: G. Elliot Morris

GERMANY: German positioning remains mixed. Bobl structural positioning has moved back to merely long from "very long" in our previous Europe Pi update, with Schatz remaining long. 

• Bund remains unchanged at flat.
• Buxl has shifted to short compared with "very short" n our previous update.
• The latest's week trade showed shorts set in Schatz and Bobl, and short covering in Bund and Buxl.

• Spot gold has risen to a three-week high above $5,200/oz on Monday, assisted by a fresh wave of safe-haven demand on uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariff plans. Today’s gains have helped extend the impressive recovery from last week’s lows to around 7.5%.
• Price has traded to a fresh short-term cycle high and continues to retrace the Jan 29 - Feb 2 sell-off. The next resistance point to monitor is $5314.0, a Fibonacci retracement level. Note that the sell from the Jan 29 high continues to highlight a potential top in the long-term trend and from a short-term perspective, an unwinding of the recent overbought condition.
• WTI Crude prices are steady overall, reversing earlier slight declines, with focus on further US-Iran talks this week alongside US tariff policy. US factory orders were weak in December, exerting some pressure on oil to offset the Iran risk premium. The US and Iran are set to resume talks in Geneva on Feb. 26, with the Iranian Foreign Minister expecting to meet US special envoy Witkoff.
• While reports suggested that US President Trump is considering a targeted attack on Iran ahead of or near to negotiations but is also considering an attack on a larger scale, late headlines from Axios suggested that both Kushner and Witkoff are urging Trump to give diplomacy a chance.
• A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s appreciation reinforces current bullish conditions. The contract has traded through $65.99, the Jan 29 high and bull trigger. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens $68.11, the Jun 23 ‘25 high and the next key resistance.