US: Trump Truth Social Post On Trade Court Ruling

May-30 00:24

US President Trump has posted on Truth Social regarding the trade Court ruling. Most focus was on hopes for the ruling to be overturned soon and the damage done to the economy (and the funds lost) if it isn't, see below for full details. 

  • "The U.S. Court of International Trade incredibly ruled against the United States of America on desperately needed Tariffs but, fortunately, the full 11 Judge Panel on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit Court has just stayed the order by the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade. "
  • "The ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade is so wrong, and so political! Hopefully, the Supreme Court will reverse this horrible, Country threatening decision, QUICKLY and DECISIVELY."
  • "The horrific decision stated that I would have to get the approval of Congress for these Tariffs. In other words, hundreds of politicians would sit around D.C. for weeks, and even months, trying to come to a conclusion as to what to charge other Countries that are treating us unfairly. If allowed to stand, this would completely destroy Presidential Power — The Presidency would never be the same!"
  • "Under this decision, Trillions of Dollars would be lost by our Country, money that will, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. It would be the harshest financial ruling ever leveled on us as a Sovereign Nation. " 
    See the full post here 

 

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Cash Open

Apr-30 00:21

TYM5 is trading 112-07, up 0-02 from its close. 

  • The US 10-year yield has opened in Asia around 4.16%, down 0.01 from its close.
  • “The trade deficit widened to a record in March, and consumer spending slowed, contributing to the GDP growth slowdown. Any demand pulled forward ahead of tariffs will dampen growth in subsequent quarters, posing downside risk for the second half of this year.”(per BBG)
  • MNI US Economist - The monthly PCE report should offer a timely update on consumer spending momentum heading into Q2. Its inflation components are expected to show a material moderation in core PCE to a ‘low’ rounded 0.1% M/M after a 0.365% M/M in February that stands a good chance of being revised up to the cusp of 0.4-0.5% M/M (making a March read-through from the earlier quarterly data more challenging).
  • The 10-year Yield, has put in a lower high around 4.40% and has broken through the recent support around 4.25%. The next support is towards the 4.10% area. 
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AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Richer Ahead Of CPI, Trump 100D Remarks Light On Details

Apr-30 00:18

ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +0.5) are slightly stronger after US tsys finished near midday bests Tuesday. 

  • US President Trump has spoken at a rally on his first 100 days in office. He stated that tax cuts will be passed in the coming weeks/months.
  • On trade/tariffs, he noted he had given flexibility for the auto sector, but stated that automakers will be slaughtered if they don't onshore production.
  • On trade deals, he stated that officials from India, France and China are coming to make deals, but didn't provide any more details than that.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 2bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +2bps.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bps lower.
  • The bills strip has twist-flattened, with pricing -2 to +2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing shows a 50bp rate cut in May as a 10% probability, with a cumulative 116bps of easing priced by year-end.
  • Today, the local calendar will see Q1 CPI. It is forecast to show the RBA's preferred trimmed mean falling below the top of the 2-3% target band for the first time since Q4 2021. This should signal another 25bp cut on May 20. Retail sales are on Friday. The Federal Election is on Saturday.
  • The AOFM plans to sell A$1200mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond on Friday.

JAPAN DATA: March IP Below Expectations, Trend Close To Flat Y/Y

Apr-30 00:14

Japan March preliminary industrial production was below market forecasts, down 1.1%m/m, versus -0.4% expected. In y/y terms we came in at -0.3% versus 0.8% forecast (0.1% was the prior outcome). 

  • The y/y trend hasn't been able to see much upside traction for a number of years now. The current y/y pace is slightly above averages for 2023/24 but only marginally.
  • By sub-sector, capital goods production rose 0.6%m/m, but ex transport was negative m/m. Shipments were negative. Durable consumer goods saw a sharp 6.5% fall, while non-durable consumer goods were also down. A government official also noted the sharp falls in motor vehicle production in March (down 5.9%m/m) due to lower exports and supply constraints (per RTRS).
  • METI still looks for solid rises in output for April and May, although the trade/tariff outlook may derail such projections.