IRAN: Trump To NYP: Talks Possible As Soon As Friday

• RES 4: $4969.0 - 20-day EMA
• RES 3: $4899.7 - 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: $4735.7 - High Mar 20  
• RES 1: $4655.7 - Low Feb 6                        
• PRICE: $4431.5 @ 13:21 GMT Mar 23 
• SUP 1: $4099.2 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $4000.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: $3945.2 - 1.236 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - Mar 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $3771.1 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - Mar 2 price swing

A bear cycle in Gold remains intact and today’s volatile recovery from its intraday low, appears corrective. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold and a stronger corrective bounce would allow this condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at $4655.7, the Feb 6 low. Key near-term resistance is at 4899.7, the 50-day EMA. For bears, a resumption of the bear leg would open $3945.2, a Fibonacci projection.

OEK6 116/117/118c fly, bought for 23 in 3k.

• We noted in our BOE Review that in order to avoid hikes we think that there would need to be some joined up thinking on the fiscal policy side.
• Our favoured approach (which we think is probably unlikely in the short term) would be for the government to announce what it would plan contingent on scenarios (e.g. fuel duty hike would be postponed if wholesale price is X, cut would be considered if price is Y etc.). This would be very out of line with the way the government has operated in the past, however, but something may be necessary soon in order to avoid inflation expectations rising too high and second round inflation effects staying under control.
• This afternoon the Prime Minister will chair a COBRA meeting that will also see BOE Governor Bailey, Chancellor Reeves, Energy Secretary Ed Milliband and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper attend. This will be the first COBRA meeting held since late February immediately after the initial Iranian conflict began.
• Sources suggest that the meeting is likely to be held post-Liaison committee, so later in the afternoon. It’s unclear how much of a detailed plan to expect from this, but it could help set the government’s economic response in the near-term (which thus far has been to take a wait and see approach to almost everything other than heating oil and trying to stop “price gouging” from petrol retailers).
• Also note that the House of Commons goes on recess from Thursday, which also marks start of pre-locals purdah period. Normally this would mean no big / controversial government announcements would be allowed - but there may potential be some wiggle room for exemptions for emergency policies if needed.