TARIFFS: Trump To Hold Press Briefing On Supreme Court Tariff Decision 12:45ET

• The turn higher in risk sentiment has helped re-open a gap between USDCHF spot and the 0.7862 December lows. While a break of 0.7829 would place the pair at the lowest level since the removal of the CHF peg, eleven years ago, to the upside, resistance stands at 0.8041, the Jan 15 and YTD high.
• Key focus ahead for CHF remains incoming comments from both US and Europe on how outstanding Greenland tensions can be resolved. Denmark's response that Trump's "not using force" line is positive highlights the possibility of Europe retaining the territorial status quo via diplomatic means. However, a renewed escalatory turn from the US is not out of the question, and would favour the CHF.
• Morgan Stanley flag options data which suggests tactical investors are short CHF, mirroring positioning in futures markets. Rabobank meanwhile think that "national fiscal positions may also be coming under fresh scrutiny", which underpins their view that CHF is "on course for another strong year in 2026". They retain a 3-month forecast of EUR/CHF 0.92, which a key support level around 80 pips below spot.

Bloomberg reports that Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen has rejected any talks over a US takeover of Greenland, in doorstep remarks to reporters at the World Economic Forum. 

• Asked by reporters whether Trump’s demand to negotiate an acquisition of Greenland would be rejected by Danes, he said: “That goes without saying… We will not enter into any negotiations on the basis of giving up fundamental principles. That is something we will never do.”
• Bloomberg notes, “Rasmussen, who didn’t hear the speech but was briefed on it, says that, 'what is clear after this speech is that the president’s ambition remains intact.' He added that Trump ruling out using force in Greenland is “positive” but that “does not make the problem go away.””
• Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said during the same press gaggle that the question of Arctic security “is not only an issue for the Kingdom of Denmark, it is also an issue for NATO,” which he has discussed with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in recent days. European leaders likely consider enhanced European defensive posture on the island as the most likely off-ramp to the crisis.
• Speaking to reporters a short time ago alongside Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Trump reiterated that the military option is ‘not on the table” for Greenland: “We’ll see what happens. The military is not on the table. I don’t think it will be necessary… I think people will use their best judgment and that will not be necessary.” 

Prediction market-implied probability of Gov Cook leaving office by end-year have fallen to 18% from 29% (on Kalshi) during the government's oral arguments for the President's power to fire the Fed official. The oral arguments are still going almost 2 hours later.

• Most notable among the questions asked of the Solicitor General representing the administration included an exchange in which Justice Kavanaugh appeared to express significant concern over the President's ability to fire Fed officials without a formal review process: "that would weaken, if not shatter, the independence of the Federal Reserve...if this were set as a precedent, it seems to me, just thinking big picture, what goes around comes around, all the current president's appointees would likely be removed for cause on January, 20, 2029, if there's a Democratic president, or January, 20 2033. And then, we're really at at will removal, so what are we doing here? That's why I started with, what's the purpose of the Independence and the for-cause removal? If we accept all these no procedure, no judicial review, no remedy. You know, that's what's going to happen, I think. And then, then where are we?"
• There appeared to be skepticism among multiple officials including Justices Gorsuch and Barrett. Their votes, and Kavanaugh's, are key to building a majority within the 9-member court required for the government to win its case and fire Cook.
• Punchbowl noted: "The Supreme Court hasn't been super jazzed about the White House's arguments this morning but this ongoing exchange with Kavanaugh is really something else."
• It's unclear when the Supreme Court would rule but in the interim it would seem that Cook will be able to remain in her position.