US: Trump To Deliver Remarks At White House Congressional Picnic Shortly

NZGBs are 4bps richer but off bests following the weekend’s Middle East developments. US tsys had finished Friday 5-7bps richer.  

• Oil has opened up strongly, US equity and bond futures weaker, Monday following news of the US Navy Seizing an Iranian ship in the Straits of Hormuz and Tehran firing at vessels. In a chaotic weekend for newsflow as a former commander in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps told the BBC that Iran will never give up control of the Straits of Hormuz.
• NZ trade moved to surplus NZ$698m in March from revised -NZ$365m in February.
• Q1 NZ CPI prints on 21 April as will the RBNZ's sector factor model measure of core. RBNZ Governor Breman said that Q1 headline inflation was likely around 3%, little changed from Q4's 3.1%. The main inflationary impact from the Iran War is expected in Q2. Like other central banks it is focused on medium-term inflation expectations and any second-round effects from higher domestic fuel prices.
• Swap rates are 3bps lower.
• RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. 6bps of tightening is priced for May, while February 2027 assigns 90 bps.
• The local calendar will also see Non-Resident Bond Holdings data.

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Spot USD/CNH is tracking higher in the first part of Monday trade, last around 6.8280, up close to 0.20% versus end Friday levels. Renewed concerns around the US/Iran conflict and the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz is buoying USD sentiment so far today. Optimism was strong at the end of last week around the Strait re-opening/ceasefire hopes, although the USD finished up from earlier lows. USD/CNH looks set to follow broader USD moves, albeit with a likely lower beta. 

• For USD/CNH, Friday lows were just above 6.8100. The technical backdrop has turned less supportive for CNH since mid April, as the pair has put in somewhat of a base. A move above 6.8300 may see the 20-day EMA targeted near 6.8500.
• Still, CNH is likely to outperform on an extended USD rebound in basket terms and the broader bias is still likely to remain fading USD/CNH up moves.
• Spot USD/CNY finished up at 6.8182 on Friday, while the CNY CFETS basket tracker edged a little higher to 99.86. Recent highs for this index rest at 100.84.
• Today we have the 1yr and 5yr Loan prime rate outcomes, but no change is expected (5yr currently at 3.50%, the 1yr at 3.00%).

The USD/JPY range Friday night  was 157.59-159.52, Asia is currently trading around 159.00. The pair dropped lower reacting to the move in Oil from the positive headlines on Friday, but again found bids on the dips and this morning we are again trading around 159.00 as Oil jumps on the failed talks. The market is clearly quite bearish on the Yen and with Oil likely to be under pressure to start the week this is likely to continue. While the dips continue to be well supported the Yen bears will be looking for another challenge of the 160 area, looking for the move to gain momentum on a sustained break higher. On the day, the first support is toward 158.00 as the market looks to form a base from which to test this area again. Something or someone has been capping any move challenging the 160 area since mid March, will they continue to do so ? I expect Jaw-boning to grow louder as we approach the level again.

• “What’s the price of real oil amid the Mideast uncertainty? The answer isn’t so simple, writes Javier Blas. It depends on what kind of crude is being sold, when it’s being sold and where, with prices ranging from $78 a barrel in Kansas to $286 in Sri Lanka. “ - BBG
• “The UAE asked the US for a financial backstop in case the Iran war plunges the country into a deeper crisis, the WSJ reported.” - BBG
• CFTC Data up to 14/04/2026 shows Asset Managers reducing their very small short Yen position, -8822(Last -14297). The Leveraged community added slightly to their shorts, –65309(Last -60210).
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 159.00($308m), 160.00(363m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 156.00($1.04b April 21), 162.00($1.16b April 23) - BBG.
• The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 95 Points
• Data/Event : Tertiary Industry Index MoM, Tokyo Condominiums for Sale YoY

Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P