US-CHINA: Trump Threatens To Withdraw From Meeting w/Xi And Increase Tariffs 1/2
Oct-10 15:47
MNI London: US President Donald Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on China and withdraw from a high-profile upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a lengthy statement on Truth Social, citing a letter from Beijing which he claims lays out new rare earth export control measures.
- Trump writes that China is, “becoming very hostile” regarding export controls on rare earths and “virtually anything else they can think of, even if it’s not manufactured in China.” Trump says, “Our relationship with China over the past six months has been a very good one, thereby making this move on Trade an even more surprising one,” arguing that Beijing is holding the world “captive” with “monopoly positions.”
- Trump says that the US also “has Monopoly positions” that he has refrained from using until now. He flags two potential actions. First he threatens to cancel a planned meeting with President Xi on the margins of the APEC summit in South Korea later this month. Second, Trump says his administration is, “calculating at this moment is a massive increase of tariffs" on Chinese products coming into the US. He notes that “many other countermeasures” are also under consideration, without specifying. Note: The current tariff truce is set to end on November 10, unless a new deal is struck.
- CNBC notes, "China’s Ministry of Commerce on Thursday said that foreign entities must now obtain a license to export products that contain more than 0.1% of rare earth sourced from that country, or that are manufactured using Chinese extraction, refining, magnet-making or recycling technology."
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US: Trump Statement On Russian Drone Incursion Offers Few Clues On Response
Sep-10 15:41
US President Donald Trump's cryptic first statement on the overnight Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace has offered few clues on the US response. "What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
- In the wake of the post, Polymarket registered a spike (27% to 39%) in the implied probability of Trump imposing new sanctions on Russia, likely inferring an acceleration of Trump's recent pivot away from Russia.
- A White House spokesperson told reporters earlier Trump plans to hold talks with Polish President Karol Nawrocki later today. The call comes after Trump pledged to maintain US military personnel in Poland during a White House meeting with Nawrocki last week.
- The drone incursion will add weight to Kyiv's dual requests for fresh sanctions on Russia and additional military aid. As a coordinated US-EU sanctions package is likely to be bogged down by the need for EU unanimity, a package of military aid from Washington could be a more effective lever for Trump to apply pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
- The most pressing need for Ukraine is additional missile defence systems and interceptors, both of which are under significant supply constraints in Europe and are critical to repelling a sustained Russian aerial bombardment on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
- Capping a frantic day of NATO diplomacy, Polish PM Donald Tusk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, and UK PM Keir Starmer convened for a call a short time ago.
FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.850%(ALLOT 55.20%)
Sep-10 15:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.850%(ALLOT 55.20%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 30.87% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 5.49% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 63.64% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.26
MACRO ANALYSIS: Macro Developments Since Last ECB: General Resilience
Sep-10 15:20
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- Developments over the summer have done little to push back on Lagarde's relatively hawkish signalling at the July press conference.
- Economic indicators such as the PMIs continue to gradually improve, the unemployment rate is at all-time lows, and inflation remains very close to the 2.0% medium-term target albeit with core still a little above target.
- The main takeaway is one of general resilience amidst trade policy induced uncertainty.
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