IRAN: *TRUMP: STRAIT WILL OPEN IMMEDIATELY UPON SIGNING

• RES 4: 1.4015 High Dec 2 ‘25
• RES 3: 1.3985 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 ‘25 - Jan 30 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3878/3967 High Apr 13 / High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3725 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3713 @ 16:38 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 1.3550/26 Low May 1 / Low Mar 9
• SUP 2: 1.3507 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.3482 Low Jan 30 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3420 Low Sep 25 

USDCAD is building on recent gains. Despite the latest gains, the trend condition remains bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. Resistance is seen at 1.3711, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible S/T reversal. A resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards 1.3526, the Mar 9 low and the next key support. A clear break of this level would open 1.3482, the Jan 30 low.

Regional Feds' analysis of April's CPI report showed a continuation of the pickup in both price "stickiness" and median metrics. 

• The Cleveland Fed's median CPI measure came in at 0.40% M/M, while the 16% trimmed mean printed 0.43% M/M - both measures were the highest since January 2024, and kept the Y/Y readings hovering just below 3% (2.80% / 2.83%, respectively).
• Meanwhile the Atlanta Fed's "Sticky" CPI measures remained just that, with the ex-shelter index up 0.24% M/M and 2.82% Y/Y - the latter marking the highest since September 2025.
• Overall, any progress that inflation had made toward 3% now looks to have largely dissipated
• We also note that the Cleveland Fed's estimate for April core PCE ticked up to 0.29% post-CPI, from 0.26% prior to the CPI release.

• +20,000 SFRM6 96.25 puts, 1.0