TARIFFS: Trump Presser On SCOTUS Tariff Ruling Underway Shortly

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 01/21 $3.5B *Ontario 3Y SOFR+34
• 01/21 $750M #KeyCorp 11NC10 +105
• 01/20 $500M #Israel Electric Corp WNG 12Y +135
• 01/21 $Benchmark PNC Financial Services 3NC2 +48, 3NC2 SOFR+62, 15NC10 +117
• 01/21 $Benchmark US Bancorp 6NC5 +90a, 6NC5 SOFR, 11NC10 +105a
• 01/21 $Benchmark CIBC 4NC3 +63, 4NC3 SOFR+80
• 01/21 $750M Nielsen 7NC3
• 01/21 $650M Petco 5NC2 
  • May price tomorrow
  • 01/22 $Benchmark CADES 5Y SOFR+60a
  • 01/22 $Benchmark ADP 5Y SOFR+31
  • 01/22 $500M Hillenbrand 7NC3 

Construction spending returned to growth in October after a soft September, in delayed 2-month data that showed a pickup in growth at the start of Q4 but overall softening momentum.

• After 0.4% M/M seasonally-adjusted, annualized growth in August, September saw a 0.6% contraction which was largely reversed with October's 0.5% rise. The 3M/3M annualized growth in construction has slowed from 3.3% to 2.9% to 2.4% over those 3 months, driven by a slowdown in overall private sector construction.
• In turn that's on the back of volatile residential construction (which saw its best month in 17 months in October after a sharp contraction in September) plus a continued contraction in manufacturing construction (contracting in October at 12% on a 3M/3M basis). Public sector construction is gradually slowing but rose by 5%+ 3M/3M  for the 6th consecutive month in October (5.1%).
• These are in value and not volume terms so a pickup in input costs could be at play here, with the real figures being weaker than this. Indeed the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimates upgraded Q4 residential construction growth - in real terms - to -1.0% Q/Q SAAR vs -5.7% in its prior estimate, but nonresidential structures pulled back to -1.9% from -0.4%. (Residential posted -5.2% and nonresidential -6.3% in Q3). These are still negative in real terms, in other words.
• On another note - data center construction growth, still an overall upside driver, is coming back to earth. It posted its softest 3M/3M growth since 2022 in October, having been a major driver of nonresidential construction over the last few years. This has become a key category: it's now 8% of nonresidential private sector construction, vs closer to 2% in 2022.
• The November report release date is still to be determined by the Census Bureau.

Better interest in buying calls on net today, carry-over from yesterday as accounts either speculate or hedge a rebound in underlying futures. The par-call fly below a different animal altogether, small hedge of interest rate drop to 0.0 by the fall. Projected rate cut pricing has cooled vs. late Tuesday levels (*): Jan'26 steady at -1.2bp, Mar'26 at -5bp (-6.1bp), Apr'26 at -9.2bp (-10.7bp), Jun'26 at -19.7bp (-21.7bp).

• +2,000 SFRU6 99.00/100.0/101.0 call flys, 0.75 and bid
• -2,000 SFRM6 96.75/97.00 1x2 call spds, 0.37
• +1,000 3QH6 96.37 straddles, 22.0
• +5,000 SFRM6 96.31/96.37 put spds, 2.0 vs. 96.52/0.10%
• +10,000 SFRH6 96.37/96.43/96.50 call flys, cab ref 96.375