GLOBAL ENERGY: "*TRUMP ON HORMUZ: AT A CERTAIN POINT IT WILL 'OPEN ITSELF'" -bbg

• Still bid, US equity indexes are paring gains late Wednesday after the January FOMC minutes revealed that "several" members wanted to keep open the possibility that the next Fed rate move could be a hike.
• IT, Energy/Materials and Consumer Discretionary sector shares remained supportive in the second half.
• A rebound in crude oil on increased middle east tensions (reports that the US is continuing to surge military assets to the Middle East) buoyed oil and gas stocks, while stronger Gold saw miners climbing as well.
• Carry-over support for chip makers after yesterday's story "Meta Deepens Nvidia Ties With Pact to Use ‘Millions’ of Chips" while late headlines added Meta has begun a "$65 Million Election Push to Advance A.I. Agenda" (NYT).
• Conversely, weakness in software and services, insurance and some pharmaceutical stocks continued to temper broader index gains.
• Earning expected after the close: Coeur Mining, CF Industries, Texas Pacific Land, Edison Int, DoorDash, Occidental Petroleum, Carvana, eBay and Blue Owl Capital.

• Crude has risen today amid a repricing of the geopolitical risk premium as the market assesses US-Iran tensions following talks on Tuesday.
• WTI Mar 26 is up by 4.5% at $65.2/bbl.
• Axios suggests that a US-Iran war may be closer than most realise, quoting a Trump adviser as saying “there is a 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks.”
• There was cautious optimism from both the US and Iran after talks in Geneva yesterday, with sentiment markedly more positive than was seen after the first round of negotiations. However, there are still significant red lines that could ultimately sink a deal.
• A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact, with key resistance and the bull trigger defined at $66.48, the Jan 30 high. Clearance of it would resume the uptrend.
• Meanwhile, precious metals have rebounded today, despite further broad gains in the US dollar, as the geopolitical tensions in the middle east remain in focus.
• Spot gold is currently up by 2.1% at $4,982/oz, having tested the $5,000 level earlier in the session, while silver has risen by 4.3% to $76.7/oz.
• Gold is still in retracement mode of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 sell-off. The next two resistance points to monitor are $5,139.9 and $5,314.0, Fibonacci retracement levels.
• For silver, a bear threat remains present, with sights on $61.136, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at $82.570, the 20-day EMA.

Overall, "almost all participants" supported the January rate hold, with "the current stance of monetary policy within the range of estimates of the neutral level... [leaving the FOMC] well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments". 

• "A couple of participants" (Miran and Waller) wanted to cut, on "concerns that the current stance of the policy rate was still meaningfully restrictive and viewed downside risks to the labor market as a more prominent policy concern than the risk of persistently elevated inflation."
• The latter was clearly a minority position. On the economic outlook, in short, "the vast majority of participants judged that downside risks to employment had moderated in recent months while the risk of more persistent inflation remained, and some commented that those risks had come into better balance."
• On the labor market, the doves were clearly outgunned at the FOMC table in January: "The vast majority of participants judged that labor market conditions had been showing some signs of stabilization and that downside risks to the labor market had diminished. Some participants, however, noted that even though the labor market was showing signs of stabilization, some indicators such as survey measures of job availability and the share of those working part time for economic reasons continued to suggest softening of conditions. In addition, most participants noted that downside risks to the labor market remained."
• On inflation, there wasn't optimism over a near-term return to target: "participants anticipated that inflation would move down toward the Committee's 2 percent objective, though the pace and timing of this decline remained uncertain. Participants generally expected that the effects of tariffs on core goods prices would likely start to diminish this year. Several participants remarked that the ongoing moderation in inflation for housing services was likely to continue to exert downward pressure on overall inflation. Several participants also expected higher productivity growth associated with technological or regulatory developments to put downward pressure on inflation....Most participants, however, cautioned that progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective might be slower and more uneven than generally expected and judged that the risk of inflation running persistently above the Committee's objective was meaningful."
• And indeed, there was a warning to the dovish-leaning members here: "several participants pointed to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched and suggested that lowering the policy rate further in the context of elevated inflation readings could be misinterpreted as implying diminished policymaker commitment to the 2 percent inflation objective."