US-RUSSIA: Trump-If No Deal Soon Taxes, Tariffs & Sanctions On Russia & Allies

Roi Kais at Kan reporting on X, per Saudi-owned Al-Sharq TV channel, that "there is significant progress," toward a ceasefire-for-hostage deal, "but there are still issues in dispute."

• Kais notes that, according to "informed Palestinian sources", Israel has agreed for the first time in the negotiations to "withdraw some of its forces from the Philadelphia axis, and also to withdraw completely from the Netzarim axis." 
• Reuters notes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there is a "certain advancement" in negotiations, adding "we are not turning a blind eye to Iran."
• A senior Palestinian official told the BBC on December 21 that talks to reach a Gaza deal are 90% complete, but key issues remain that need to be bridged, including "the continued Israeli military presence in the Philadelphi corridor." The BBC noted, if these issues were to be resolved, "a three-stage ceasefire could be agreed within days."
• Reuters summarised earlier today: "A fresh bid by mediators Egypt, Qatar and the United States to end the fighting and release Israeli and foreign hostages has gained momentum this month, though no breakthrough has yet been reported."

Consumer confidence unexpectedly pulled back in December after reaching a 3-year high in November, with the Conference Board's index dropping to a 3-month low 104.7 (113.2 survey) from 112.8 (rev from 111.7). This was largely down to expectations fading, to 81.1 from 93.7; "present situation" was fairly steady, dipping to 140.2 from 141.4.

• However, the closely-watched labor differential metric (jobs plentiful minus jobs hard to get) improved for the 3rd consecutive month to 22.2 from 18.4, for the highest reading since May. That included 37% saying jobs were "plentiful", and just under 15% saying jobs were "hard to get", respectively the highest and lowest since May.
• We don't take great signal from the headline confidence figures, as they are volatile (the latest reading being impacted by concerns over potential government policy shifts including tariffs), and the level is broadly consistent with continued robust consumption rather than any change in trend.
• But the labor market differential continues to point to a cooling but not rapidly deteriorating labor market. Overall it suggests that the trend increase in the unemployment rate will remain fairly slow.

November posted improved home sales figures compared with a soft October, but r. New home sales came in roughly as expected at 664k on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, up from 627k prior (upwardly revised from 610k), following on from data showing a 4.8% M/M increase in existing home sales in November to the highest level since March at 4.15M.

• The October figure looks to have been depressed by hurricane activity, particularly in the South (which saw sales rebounding 14%). However, overall there has been some softening versus broader trends in activity, with the 2-month average existing sales at an 11-month low.
• Median new sales prices are down 6.3% Y/Y to the lowest since February 2022 ($402.6k) with supplies remaining robust: there are 8.9 months of inventory available, close to the 9.2 months in October, some of the highest figures seen outside of crises//immediately post-pandemic, and well above the 3.8 months of existing homes.
• High mortgage rates are impacting both new and existing home sales activities, but there remains greater stagnation on the existing side as current homeowners are finding the opportunity cost of moving too high. Conversely, homebuilders continue to provide incentives for new home buyers to help offset the high prevailing interest rates.