US: Trump Firms As Republican Primary Favourite Despite Legal Issues
NBC News has reported that former President Donald Trump has increased his favourite status for the GOP primary despite mounting legal issues and a effort from challenger Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) to bolster his campaign ahead of an expected 2024 launch.
- NBC News: “A whopping two-thirds of Republican primary voters say they stand behind former President Donald Trump and dismiss concerns about his electability, despite his recent criminal arrest and other legal investigations into his past conduct.”
- “That — along with his double-digit lead over his nearest potential GOP rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — makes Trump the clear front-runner in the early race for the Republican presidential nomination.”
- Georgia prosecutor Fani Willis told reporters yesterday that she will announce "charging decisions" in the case related to Trump's alleged interference in Georgia's 2020 election result "in the summer."
Figure 1: “Which statement comes closer to your view on the investigations into Donald Trump and the Republican nomination for president?”
Source: NBC News
Figure 2: “If the Republican primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you favour?”
Source: NBC News
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USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
- RES 1: 1.3814/3862 High Mar 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3764 @ 15:52 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 1.3631 Low Mar 23
- SUP 2: 1.3589 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
- SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21
The recent move lower in USDCAD is considered corrective and this has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. A key support area to watch lies at 1.3589, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Correction Still In Play
- RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
- RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
- RES 2: 0.6784 High Mar 1
- RES 1: 0.6769 50-day EMA and a key resistance
- PRICE: 0.6647 @ 15:48 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 0.6625 Low Mar 24
- SUP 2: 0.6590/47 Low Mar 15 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 3: 0.6500 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish, however, the bull cycle that started Mar 10, remains in play now. The move higher is considered corrective. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes resistance at the 50-day EMA - at 0.6769. A clear break of the average would strengthen a bullish theme and suggest scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 145.57 High Mar a2 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 144.96 High Mar 15
- RES 2: 143.98 76.4% retracement of the recent Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle
- RES 1: 142.64/143.63 50-day EMA / High Mar 22
- PRICE: 140.55 @ 15:47 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 140.00 Round number support
- SUP 2: 138.83 Low Mar 20
- SUP 3: 137.96 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 137.92 Low Jan 19
EURJPY has pulled back from Wednesday’s high of 143.63. This level represents a key short-term resistance where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. A continuation lower would expose key support at 138.83, the Mar 20 low and a bear trigger. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode set-up - this suggests the latest pullback is a correction. A break of 143.63 would open 143.98, 76.4% of the Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle.
