IRAN: Trump-Estimated War At 4-6 Weeks, We Are Ahead Of Schedule

Bailey notes that goods inflation is a bit weaker and are seeing trade effects come through, particularly from China. And that food prices are also off more than expected but that services "didn't come off as much as we thought". He started saying "put that all together..." but was cut off in his comments...

All 3 of the major e-mini futures contracts move lower through the cash open on Wall St., but yesterday's lows remain intact/go untested, before the DJIA leads a bounce. AI-related partnerships and risks continue to dominate equity-centric discussions and news flow.

• We haven't seen much in the way of meaningful flow/program operations since the cash open, pointing to relatively low conviction during the initial move lower.

• Reoffer: 99.491 to yield 3.980%
• E7bln (MNI expected E5-8bln, Reuters source said Treasury looks for E6bln - we warned of upside risks after this).
• Books closed in excess of E119bln (including E5.95bln JLM interest)
• Spread set at 4.00% Oct-54 Obli mid (ISIN: ES0000012M93) +5bps (guidance was +8bps area)
• HR: 102% vs 4.00% Oct-54 Obli (spot ref 101.167 / 3.930%)
• Coupon: 3.95%, short first
• Maturity: Oct. 31, 2056
• ISIN: ES0000012R56
• Settlement: March 3, 2026 (T+5)
• Bookrunners: BNPP, Citi, CA-CIB, DB, GS, HSBC (B&D / DM)
• Timing: TOE 14:27GMT / 15:27CET. FTT immediately

From market source / MNI colour