IRAN: Trump Criticizes Media and States Iran Have "No Cards"

Details from this morning's German HICP data show the following:

• Services-heavy divisions indicate that any change in overall services will have been driven by a shift in less volatile categories, as higher air fares (7.72% Y/Y vs 3.43% Jan, adding 0.03pp) and lower package holidays (3.69% vs 6.12% prior, subtracting 0.04pp from headline) roughly cancel each other in terms of impact in February.
• Insurance and financial services slowed materially to 3.57% Y/Y in February (4.24% Jan). Recreation, sport and culture is a little lower than January, at 2.17% (2.32% Jan) but package holidays stood out here as detailed above. Restaurants and accommodation services remained almost unchanged at 3.20% (a recent minimum wage increase and VAT decrease counter each other currently in terms of underlying inflation drivers in the category). The minor change in education services (4.46% vs 4.74% prior) did not have a noticeable impact on headline as per the low weighting of the category. Overall services HICP is not yet published by Destatis (see comment below).
• As with CPI, food was a material downward contributor in February, with food and non-alcoholic beverages decelerating to 1.90% Y/Y, which took away 0.13pp from the headline Y/Y print since January.
• Core goods-related categories have been mixed in February, with Clothing and footwear accelerating to 1.25% Y/Y (-0.08% Jan) but Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance a little lower than January, at 0.11% (0.43% Jan).
• Energy HICP may have broadly matched its moderately lower CPI print (-1.8% vs -1.6% Jan) as household energy has moved further into deflationary territory (-3.73 vs -3.29 Jan) while motor fuels were insignificantly changed this time (0.36%). The category will be the key focus in March following the recent oil and gas price surges amid the Iran conflict.

February data from Destatis, combined with prior indices from Eurostat, as Destatis back series pre-2026 continues to be missing. HICP special aggregates are missing at the time of writing on Destatis (Eurostat will only update here with the EZ-wide final reading).

MNI interviews former Boston Fed President on monetary policy outlook -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

Treasury futures remain weaker, near recent session lows (TYH6 111-29  -17.5,  yld 4.2043%) ahead of the $39B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CPZ8) at the top of the hour. WI is currently 4.217%, 4bp cheap to last month's tail: 

• February auction recap: Treasury futures retreated (TYH6 -5.5 at 112-11) after the $42B 10Y note auction (91282CPZ8) tailed: drawing 4.177% high yield vs. 4.162% WI; 2.39x bid-to-cover vs. 2.55x prior.
• Peripheral stats: indirect take-up retreated to 64.54% vs. 69.65% prior; direct bidder take-up 22.08% from 24.51% prior; primary dealer take-up surged to 13.38% vs. 5.85% prior.