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• RES 4: 1.3661 High Sep 18    
• RES 3: 1.3607 2.764 proj of the Nov 4 - 13 - 20 price swing 
• RES 2: 1.3557 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3537 High Dec 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3526 @ 17:01 GMT Jan 5
• SUP 1: 1.3402 Low Dec 31
• SUP 2: 1.3361 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3288 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 4: 1.3180 Low Dec 2     

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and for now, the latest pullback appears corrective. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key short-term support is seen at 1.3361, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper pullback. For bulls, a resumption of the uptrend would open 1.3557, a Fibonacci retracement.  

• It was a tale of two halves for the US dollar on Monday, as FX market participants attempted to assess the complicated outlook for Venezuela in the aftermath of President Maduro’s capture. Initially, geopolitical concerns moderately boosted the greenback, prompting the DXY to rise to the highest level in three weeks. However, uncertainty regarding the international reaction, the lack of DXY momentum, a lower-than expected US ISM manufacturing print and buoyant risk sentiment more generally has facilitated a notable reversal lower for the dollar.
• Standing out has been a significant reaction for GBPUSD, which after printing 1.3414 lows overnight, came roaring back to retake the 1.35 handle and pressure key resistance at 1.3537. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. 1.3607 is up next, the 2.764 projection of the Nov 4 - 13 - 20 price swing.
• Despite a similar looking reversal on the chart, EURUSD remains lower on the day, with Declines for the likes of EURAUD and EURNZD emphasising the buoyant sentiment for equity markets. For EURAUD, we have traded through support at 1.7462, as the cross prints the lowest level since May. This signals scope for a more protracted selloff towards a key downside target at 1.7248, the May 2025 low.
• Meanwhile, AUDUSD's clearance of 0.6700 ahead of the close today keeps the short-term outlook bullish to keep focus on the bull trigger at 0.6728, the Dec 29 and range high. CPI data due Wednesday should prove influential here, marking the new monthly series and a direct input into the February 3rd RBA decision.
• USDJPY posted its familiar 100 pip range, running out of steam above the 157 handle and tracking closer to 156 as we approach the APAC crossover. In EM, the South African Rand has rallied to a fresh three-year high bolstered by a 2.5% rally for gold prices.
• Eurozone inflation data is due tomorrow, while in the US, focus turns to ISM services Wednesday and the employment report due Friday.