SECURITY: Trump: 'Bad Things Will Happen' If Iran Doesn't Join 'Path To Peace'

Feb-19 15:38

Additional comments from US President Donald Trump on Iran during his opening remarks to the Board of Peace. Trump says: "Even people with extremism are exhausted... They want peace. Now is the time for Iran to join us on a path that will complete what we're doing. If they join us, that'll be great. If they don't join us, that'll be great too, but it will be a very different path."

  • Trump continues, "[Iran] cannot continue to threaten the stability of the entire region. They must make a deal. Or if that doesn't happen... Bad things will happen."
  • The comments appear somewhat conciliatory but strike a similar tone to recent remarks from senior Trump administration officials: Diplomacy is the preferred option, but the US reserves the right to military action if Iran fails to deliver a sufficient compromise in nuclear talks.
  • Notably, Trump delivers his remarks from what appears to be a prepared speech. He refrains from ad-libbing and doesn't stray from a text in front of him, which suggests the speech has been calibrated to avoid offering much of a guide on the Trump administration's Iran policy.
  • In what could be a bullish signal for a compromise with Iran, Trump's remarks focus on Iran's access to nuclear weapons, rather than more sticky issues like zero-enrichment or Iran's ballistic missile programme. "We do have some work to do with Iran. They can’t have a nuclear weapon," Trump said. 

Historical bullets

GILT AUCTION RESULTS: On offer next week

Jan-20 15:30

The DMO will look to sell GBP3.25bln of the 4.125% Mar-33 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BVP99780) at its auction next Tuesday (Jan 27)

OPTIONS: Expiries for Jan21 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

Jan-20 15:30
  • EUR/USD: $1.1690-95(E1.6bln), $1.2000(E857mln)
  • USD/JPY: Y157.00-10($1.1bln), Y158.00($1.2bln), Y158.50($1.4bln), Y159.50($511mln), Y160.00($949mln)

US DATA: Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Another Good Sign For Services Activity

Jan-20 15:29

The Philadelphia Fed's Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey saw a substantial improvement in January, with softer inflation evident. This is another positive sign for services sector activity momentum (ISM Services posted a 14-month high in December) going into 2026, following the improvement in the NY Fed's equivalent index.

  • The regional-level general activity index soared to a 15-month high -4.2 from -21.6 (no consensus). The firm level activity index also jumped to a 5-month high 16.2 from 0.8.
  • This was a strong report in almost all meaningful facets: New Orders rose to 5.5 from 0.2 for a 5-month high; while part-time employment fell by more than 15 points, full-time rose 2.2 points to a 15-month high. The survey's sales/revenues index rose from 12.1 to 24.8, a post-October 2024 high.
  • Inflation pressures also eased: paid fell to a 6-month low 34.5 (36.9 prior) with received down to a 3-month low 13.2 (16.2 prior). Combined with the ISM services prices gauge, it's further evidence that services sector inflation pressures have already peaked.
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