AMERICAS REFINING: Trinidad Finalising Refinery Restart
Nov-13 11:26
The committee evaluating the restart of Trinidad’s 175k b/d Guaracara refinery is nearing completion of its work, according to BNamericas citing energy minister Roodal Moonilal.
- "We are convinced given the preliminary findings that we can begin refining, albeit in a staged or phased basis," Moonilal told a local business event.
- The refinery was shut in 2018 as part of a restructuring of state oil company Petrotrin.
- The proposed reopening of the refinery is part of a wider effort to transform the country into a regional energy hub.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilts Clear A Key Resistance
Oct-14 11:25
- In the FI space, Bund futures have rallied today. This week’s early gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high and a key short-term resistance. The break strengthens a bullish condition and signals scope for a continuation higher with sights in 130.05 next, a 76.4% retracement of the Jun 13 - Sep 3 bear leg. Note that moving average studies are crossing into a bull-mode position, a bullish signal. Important support lies at 128.67, the 50-day EMA. First support is at 129.13, the Oct 10 low.
- Gilt futures rallied sharply higher on Friday confirming a resumption of the recovery that started Sep 25. Today’s gap higher strengthens current conditions and price has cleared key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The breach strengthens bullish conditions and opens the 92.00 handle, and 92.37, the Aug 11 high (cont). Price needs to trade below support at 90.26, the Sep 26 low, to reinstate a bearish theme. First support lies at 90.90, the 20-day EMA.
CRYPTO: Bitcoin Call Fly Option
Oct-14 11:25
XBT (11th Dec) 135k/145k/155k c fly, bought for 600 in 200.
US TSYS: 10Y Yields Probe 4.00% In Broad Have Demand
Oct-14 11:06
- Treasuries trade firmer across the curve in further reaction to US-China trade tensions which continued overnight.
- Headlines confirmed that China were ratcheting higher their controls on rare earth exports. On a related note from the WSJ: “People close to the Trump administration say the U.S. side likely will demand that China rescind, not merely delay or water down the rare-earth export rule”.
- Cash trading has resumed after yesterday’s Columbus Day holiday although futures saw a full session.
- Today sees early focus on earnings before Powell’s economic update headlines the session, whilst markets will firmly be on headline watch for US-China trade prospects. Note also the holiday-compressed bill issuance calendar.
- A solid earnings schedule is being digested, with recent results from Blackrock, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo leading financials plus Johnson & Johnson. GS (expected 0730ET) and Citi (expected 0800ET) are still to come.
- Cash yields are 2-4bp lower, with 3s leading declines and 20s lagging.
- 10Y yields currently at 4.003% (-2.9bp) have seen support at 4.00%, briefly hitting 3.9976% having last been sub 4% briefly on Sep 17 and Sep 11. 10Y yields were last more materially sub-4% in early April under reciprocal tariff deliberations.
- TYZ5 trades at 113-16 (+11) on strong cumulative volumes of 550k.
- An earlier high of 113-17+ sits as the latest initial resistance level, building on Friday’s clearance of 113-00 as it increasingly looks to the bull trigger at 113-29 (Sep 11 high). Support meanwhile is seen at 112-15 (50-day EMA).
- Data: NFIB for Sept already published, Weekly Redbook retail sales (0855ET)
- Fedspeak: Bowman (0845ET), Powell (1220ET), Waller (1525ET), Collins (2030ET), Goolsbee (time unknown)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $86B 13W & $77B 26W bill auctions (1130ET), $95B 6W bill auction (1300ET)
- Politics: Trump in bilateral lunch with Argentina President (1315ET), Trump in Charlie Kirk ceremony (1600ET)
