SILVER TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.686/700 - High Apr 25 / Intraday high
- PRICE: $33.292 @ 08:12 BST May 28
- SUP 1: $31.651 - Low May 15
- SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and recent gains reinforce this condition. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.651, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
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NORWAY: Bankruptcies Spike As High Rates Weigh; Focus On May 8 NB Guidance
Norwegian bankruptcies rose 22.5% Y/Y in the four quarters to Q1 2025, a sign that high interest rates are weighing on mainland activity and employment. Markets price almost 20bps of easing through the June decision, placing focus on whether any guidance for a cut will be provided on May 8.
- A reminder that in her April 8 speech, Governor Wolden-Bache noted that “considerable weight shall be given to employment – also at times when inflation deviates significantly from the target”.
- Against this backdrop, hard labour market data has shown some signs of softening but continues to hold up reasonably well overall. The LFS trend unemployment rate was 4.1% in March, steady against February’s 2-tenth upwardly revised reading.
- Employment growth was -0.8% M/M (vs -0.1% prior), corresponding to a 3m/3m rate of 0.1% (vs -0.4% prior). The Q1 Regional Network Survey indicated Q1 employment growth at 0.2%.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Cycle Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 2: 1.4131 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3906/3987 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3881 @ 08:01 BST Apr 28
- SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
The trend condition in USDCAD is unchanged, it remains bearish. A fresh cycle low last Monday highlights a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3987, the 20-day EMA
US TSY OPTIONS: Large outright put buyer
- TYM5 106.50p, bought for 2 in 15k.
Recall earlier that the 107.00p, was also bought for 2 in 15k.
