AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Remains Down
- RES 4: 0.6770 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 0.6671 High Sep 22
- RES 2: 0.6632 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6550 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 0.6505 @ 15:30 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 0.6363 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6337 Low Apr 24 2020
- SUP 3: 0.6283 Low Apr 23 2020
- SUP 4: 0.6255 1.236 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
AUDUSD remains in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent break of support at 0.6682, the Jul 14 low and a bear trigger, has strengthened bearish conditions and maintains the broader downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 0.6337 next, the Apr 24 2020 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6632, the 20-day EMA.
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (U2) Outlook Deteriorating
- RES 3: 97.455 - High Mar 18
- RES 2: 97.185/275 - High Apr 5 / 200-dma
- RES 1: 97.040 - High Aug 03
- PRICE: 96.340 @ 16:07 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 96.245 - Low Sep 1
- SUP 2: 96.208 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 95.663 - Low Jun 16
Aussie 10yr futures slipped further late last week and have dipped below key support at 96.355, Jul 22 low. This weakens the bull cycle posted since mid-June, opening the gap with the 200-dma on the continuation contract, at 97.275. The bull trigger is 97.040, the Aug 3 high. On the downside, recent weakness suggests scope for a deeper retracement towards the mid-Jun low of 95.663.
USDCAD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
- RES 3: 1.3292 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3208 High Sep 1
- PRICE: 1.3084 @ 16:01 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 1.3063/1.2983 High Aug 23 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
- SUP 3: 1.2828 Low Aug 17
- SUP 4: 1.2770 Low Aug 15
USDCAD rallied again Thursday, with the bull theme remaining in tact despite the Friday pullback. Attention is on 1.3224, a key resistance and the Jul 14 high. A break would represent an important bullish development. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, highlighting a broader uptrend. Initial firm support is at 1.2895. A break would alter the picture. Initial support lies at .3063, the Aug 23 high and a recent breakout level.
US TSYS: Jobs, Orders Data Doesn't Preclude 75Bp Sep Hike, Fed Blackout in 1 Wk
Tsys trading moderately higher after the bell, near midmorning highs after a somewhat volatile first half, curves bull steepening (2s10s +5.363 at -20.069).
- Tsys whipsawed, extending session range to the down and upside in short order after August jobs gain of +315k - little better than +298k est while focus turned to avg hourly earnings, unemployment misses. Tsys extended highs after midmorning data missed est's: Factory Orders -1.0% vs. 0.2%, Durables -0.1% vs. 0.0% est.
- In-line with sporadic selling, BMO analysts summed up the in-line to mildly softer data saying "there is nothing in today's data that would bring into question Powell's ability to hike 75 bp on Sept 21 in the event the CPI release justifies such a move."
- Nevertheless, markets appeared to have taken data with a dovish tone as short end markets started to discount chances of 75bp hike at Sep 21 FOMC.(appr 60% vs. 75% on Thursday): Short end Eurodollar futures, lead quarterly EDU2 +0.0725 at 96.665 session high.
- Meanwhile, US markets closed Monday for extended holiday weekend, giving Fed speakers limited time to express their policy leaning ahead next media blackout next Friday at midnight.
- Currently, 2-Yr yield is down 10.2bps at 3.3976%, 5-Yr is down 9.8bps at 3.2996%, 10-Yr is down 5.8bps at 3.195%, and 30-Yr is down 1.7bps at 3.3444%
