EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance  
• RES 3: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
• RES 1: 173.24 High Jul 15
• PRICE: 171.77 @ 16:10 BST Jul 23
• SUP 1: 171.37  Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 170.97 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 169.32 Low Jul 3   
• SUP 4: 168.24 50-day EMA   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. A price sequence of higher highs and higher lows highlights a dominant uptrend and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Sights are on 173.43, the Jul 12 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 170.97, the 20-day EMA. A move below this average would signal scope for a corrective pullback.

• Stocks continued to pull higher late Wednesday, SPX emini new record of 6393.75, Nasdaq near Monday's record high of 21077.37, while the DJIA still has a ways to go to breach December 4 '24 high of 45073.63.
• Currently, the DJIA trades up 472.62 points (1.06%) at 44973.58, S&P E-Minis up 44.25 points (0.7%) at 6391, Nasdaq up 114.9 points (0.5%) at 21007.38.
• The two main drivers for the rally were better than expected earnings from a wide swath of stocks (still early in the current cycle) and optimism over trade deals after Pres Trump announced a sweeping trade deal with Japan late Tuesday.
• Stocks climbed to new highs after Financial Times article posited the US & EU "close in on 15% tariff deal". Brief second half consolidation: Treasuries bounced off lows while stocks continued to extend highs even after WH official Peter Navarro saying to take the US/EU deal story "with a grain of salt".
• Industrials, Health Care and Energy sector shares continued to lead gainers in the second half: Lamb Weston Holdings +16.74%, GE Vernova +13.90%, TE Connectivity +11.37%, Baker Hughes +10.83%, Thermo Fisher Scientific +10.77%, General Motors +7.92%, Lennox International +7.58%, General Dynamics +6.30% and Moderna +6.29%.
• Other laggers outside of Tech included: Enphase Energy -14.12%, NextEra Energy -6.29% and EQT -4.84%, Albemarle -5.50% and Fiserv -15.56%
• Earnings expected after today's close: T-Mobile US, Mattel, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Molina Healthcare, CSX Corp, O'Reilly Automotive, Tesla, ServiceNow, Crown Castle, United Rentals, Rollins, QuantumScape, Alphabet, Alaska Air, Las Vegas Sands, Viking Therapeutics, IBM, and Valero Energy Corp.

• Spot gold has fallen by 1.1% to $3,394/oz on Wednesday, as trade concerns eased with the US announcing a trade deal with Japan and progress on talks with the EU.
• The EU and US are closing in on a trade deal that would impose 15% tariffs on European imports, the FT wrote.
• A bull cycle in gold that started June 30 remains intact, however, with the yellow metal still 1.3% higher on the week. A continuation higher would open $3,451.3, the June 16 high.
• Initial firm support to watch is $3,282.8, the July 9 low.
• Meanwhile, crude has been steady today, with WTI Sep 25 broadly unchanged at $65.3/bbl.
• A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact, with the sharp reversal from the June 23 high continuing to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.70. This average has been pierced, and a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low.
• Initial resistance to monitor is $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.
• Elsewhere, copper has rallied by a further 1.9% to $583/lb, taking gains this week to 4%, amid ongoing uncertainty about the potential 50% copper tariff.
• Copper futures remain bullish, with price briefly piercing the July 8 high at $589.55 earlier today. Above here, sights are on the $600.0 handle.