USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.3745 High Mar 27
- RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 1.3617 High Mar 29
- RES 1: 1.3562 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3456 @ 08:05 BST Apr 12
- SUP 1: 1.3404 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally
- SUP 2: 1.3358 Low Feb 16
- SUP 3: 1.3334 Low Feb 15
- SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support
The outlook in USDCAD remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and 1.3562, 50% of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally. The move lower signals scope for an extension and note that 1.3491 was cleared on Apr 3, the 61.8% retracement. The break opens 1.3404, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3562, the 50-day EMA
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AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
- RES 3: 0.6810 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6746/84 20-day EMA / High Mar 1 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6695 Low Mar 1
- PRICE: 0.6666 @ 06:57 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 0.6547 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
AUDUSD is trading higher today. Despite this climb, the trend condition remains bearish. Last Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces and strengthens a bearish near-term view. The break lower confirmed a bear flag formation on the daily chart and prices have breached a key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.
EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
- RES 3: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 145.10 High Mar 10
- PRICE: 144.17 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 142.91 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 142.15 Low Feb 24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 141.52 Low Feb 14
- SUP 4: 140.14 Low Feb 13
The recent pullback in EURJPY appears to be a correction. Trend conditions remain bullish and recent gains have maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of the uptrend would open 145.80, a Fibonacci retracement and 146.73, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 142.15, the Feb 24 low. First support lies at 142.91, the 50-day EMA.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply W/C Mar 13, 2023 (2/2)
- On Thursday, Spain will look to sell the 0% Jan-28 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012I08), the 3.15% Apr-33 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L52) and the 1.90% Oct-52 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K46). The auction size will be announced this afternoon.
- France will then look to sell E10.5-12.0bln of MT OATs. On offer will be the 2.50% Sep-26 OAT (ISIN: FR001400FYQ4), the 0.75% Feb-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400AIN5) and the 0% Nov-30 OAT (ISIN: FR0013516549).
- France will conclude bond issuance for the week later on Thursday with E1.0-1.5bln of I/L OATs on offer: the 0.10% Mar-29 OATei (ISIN: FR0013410552), the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181) and the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014).
NET NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week sees a E15.0bln redemption of a formerly 7-year BTP and coupon payments of E4.6bln (of which E2.7bln are Italian and E1.1bln Belgian). With estimated gross nominal issuance of E37.8bln this week, we look for net flows of positive E18.1bln in the week ahead, compared to last week’s negative E0.4bln.
