USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 141.61 High Nov 23
- RES 3: 140.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct 21 and Jan 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 138.17/33 High Dec 15 / 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- PRICE: 136.31 @ 16:17 GMT Mar 9
- SUP 1: 135.37 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 135.04 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 134.16 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 132.90 High Feb 6
The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective at these levels. This week’s break of 137.09, Mar 2 high, confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and attention is on resistance at 138.17, the Dec 15 high and a key short-term hurdle. Clearance of this level would reinforce bullish conditions. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards 139.59, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at 135.37.
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USDJPY TECHS: Fades Off Resistance
- RES 4: 136.67 38.2% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 134.77 High Jan 6 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 134.54 Low Dec 14
- RES 1: 132.94 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 131.33 @ 16:22 GMT Feb 7
- SUP 1: 130.56 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 128.09/127.23 Low Feb 2 / Low Jan 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
- SUP 4: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
USDJPY faded through the latter half of the Tuesday session, putting prices well off resistance at the 50-day EMA of 132.94. Firm support to watch lies at 128.09, the Feb 2 low. The bear trigger is at 127.23, the Jan 16 low. To the upside, clearance of the 50-day EMA would highlight a stronger reversal and expose 134.77, the Jan 6 high.
US: Biden Favourite To Win Re-Election In 2024
Betting exchange Smarkets sees US President Joe Biden as favourite to win the 2024 presidential election for the first time in over a year.
- Comes as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is continuing to make moves consistent with a 2024 president campaign.
- Puck reports that two well-regarded GOP consultants, Phil Cox and Liesl Hickey, have been “staffing up for what appears to be a DeSantis-blessed super PAC.”
- Politico reports that GOP lawmakers in Florida are helping the DeSantis administration tie up some loose ends, “taking steps to undercut or nix legal challenges against some of DeSantis’ signature programs [and] helping him resolve a year-long feud with Disney.”
- President Biden will deliver his State of the Union speech this evening which is expected to function as a soft launch of his 2024 campaign.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Outright Winner (Smarkets)
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Theme, Despite Week’s Weakness
- RES 4: 0.9097 76.4% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.9023 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8979 High Feb 3
- PRICE: 0.8907 @ 16:16 GMT Feb 7
- SUP 1: 0.8875/0.8852 Low Feb 2 / High Jan 25
- SUP 2: 0.8837 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8788 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a reversal trigger
EURGBP trend conditions remain bullish despite the Monday-Tuesday sell-off after last week’s gains. The cross remains within range of its recent highs. Resistance at 0.8897, the Jan 13 high and a recent bull trigger, has been cleared. The breach confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started early December and sights are on 0.8992, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. First key support to watch lies at 0.8837, the 20-day EMA.
