USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 141.61 High Nov 23
- RES 3: 140.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct 21 and Jan 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 138.17/33 High Dec 15 / 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- PRICE: 136.68 @ 16:42 GMT Mar 8
- SUP 1: 135.37 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 135.04 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 134.16 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 132.90 High Feb 6
The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. This week’s break of 137.09, Mar 2 high, confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and attention is on resistance at 138.17, the Dec 15 high and a key short-term hurdle. Clearance of this level would reinforce bullish conditions. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards 139.59, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at 135.37.
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MNI: SWISS JAN UNEMPLOYMENT +4% M/M, -17.6% Y/Y
- MNI: SWISS JAN UNEMPLOYMENT +4% M/M, -17.6% Y/Y
- SWISS JAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE +1.9%
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C Feb 6, 2023
Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium, the ESM and Italy will all look to issue bills this week. We look for issuance of E27.9bln at first round operations, up from E15.9bln last week.
- This morning, Spain will look to sell a combined E4.5-5.5bln of 6-month Aug 11, 2023 letras and new 12-month Feb 9, 2024 letras.
- Belgium will then come to the market to sell E2.0-2.4bln of the TCs: an indicative E1.0bln of the Short May 11, 2023 TC and an indicative E1.2bln of the Long Jan 11, 2024 TC.
- Later today, the ESM will then look to sell E1.1bln of the new 3-month May 4, 2023 bills.
- Italy will conclude eurozone bill issuance for the week on Friday, with the new 12-month BOT on offer. The auction size will be announced tomorrow.
BTP TECHS: (H3) Key Resistance Zone Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 121.26 0.764 proj of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 118.56/96 High Jan 19 / Dec 7 and a key resistance zone
- RES 1: 118.18 High Jan 27
- PRICE: 115.46 @ Close Feb 6
- SUP 1: 115.03/113.47 High Jan 30 / Low Jan 30 and key support
- SUP 2: 112.26 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
- SUP 3: 111.59 Low Jan 6
- SUP 4: 110.77 Low Jan 4 and 76.4% of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
BTP futures traded sharply higher on Feb 2 and the contract breached resistance at 116.94, the Jan 25 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of firm resistance at 118.56, the Jan 19 high and 118.96, the Dec 7 high. A break of this zone would strengthen bullish conditions and confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. Key short-term support lies at 113.47, the Jan 30 low. The latest pullback is considered corrective.
