US TSYS: Treasury Futures Little Changed, Ranges Tight
May-23 05:18
- Treasury futures are little changed today, hold near overnight lows, the 10Y contract is unchanged at 109-01, while the 2Y contract is (- 00.125) at 101-19
- Volumes: TU 29k, FV 40k, TY 66k
- Tsys Flows: Block seller of 1.8k at 105-24.25
- Despite the latest pullback in Treasuries, the short-term trend condition remains bullish. Support now holds at 108-29 (20-day EMA), a break below here would see us look to test 108-15 (May 14 low), while to the upside initial resistance holds at 109-31+ (May 16 high/Bull trigger).
- The treasury curve bear-flattened on Wednesday, we have opened little changed with the 2Y yield +0.2bp at 4.871%, 10Y +0.2bp to 4.424%.
- Regionally: ACBG curve flatter, yields are +1.5bps to -4.1bps, NZGBs steeper, yields 4-8bps higher, while JGB curve steeper, yields are +2bps to -1bp.
- Rate cut projections are slightly lower vs. late Tuesday levels (*): June 2024 at -5% w/ cumulative rate cut 0bp at 5.323%, July'24 at -16.0% (-20%) w/ cumulative at -5.2 (-6.3bp) at 5.283%, Sep'24 cumulative -17.8bp (-19.9bp), Nov'24 cumulative -25.6bp (-27.6bp), Dec'24 -40bp (-43.7bp).
- Looking ahead: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Jobless Claims & S&P Global US PMI
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Apr-23 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 23-Apr | 815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 23-Apr | 830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 23-Apr | 900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 24-Apr | 835 | EU | ECB's Cipollone at ECB retail payments conference |
| 24-Apr | 900 | IT | ISTAT Business/Consumer Confidence |
| 24-Apr | 900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 24-Apr | 1010 | EU | ECB's Cipollone at ECB Retail Payments Conference |
| 24-Apr | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 24-Apr | 1500 | EU | ECB's Schnabel remarks at '"Frankfurt liest ein Buch" |
| 25-Apr | 700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 25-Apr | 745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 25-Apr | 800 | ES | PPI |
| 25-Apr | 800 | EU | ECB's Schnabel Speech for 'ChaMP' |
| 26-Apr | 745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 26-Apr | 900 | EU | M3 |
| 26-Apr | 900 | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 26-Apr | 900 | EU | ECB's De Guindos at Academia Europea Leadership |
US TSYS: Treasury Futures Are Little Changed, Ranges Tight
Apr-23 05:15
- Treasury futures have done very little on Tuesday, ranges are tight (10Y - high 107-30+, low 107-27) and volumes are on the low side, following on from the US session when volumes were at about 60% verse the 20-day average, Jun'24 10Y contract is now unchanged from NY closing levels at 107-28, a downward trend remains and a bear cycle remains in play, initial support is at 107-13+ (Apr 16 low), while initial resistance is 108-22+ (Apr 19 high).
- Cash Treasury curve little changed Today, with the 2Y yield +0.5bps to 4.976%, 10Y +0.4bps to 4.613%, the 2y10y is unchanged at -35.879.
- Across local rate markets, NZGBs are 4-5bps lower, ACGBs are 1-4bps lower and JGBs are 1-5bps higher, in the EM space INDON & PHILIP yields are 1-4bps lower.
- Projected rate cut pricing running steady to mildly lower vs. late Friday lvls: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -0.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -16.2% w/ cumulative rate cut -4.7bp at 5.282%. July'24 cumulative at 11.6bp, Sep'24 cumulative -22.3bp.
- Looking ahead: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity, S&P Global US PMI, New Home Sales
EURGBP TECHS: Range Breakout
Apr-23 05:13
- RES 4: 0.8704 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
- RES 3: 0.8683 High Jan 2
- RES 2: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
- RES 1: 0.8644 High Apr 22
- PRICE: 0.8629 @ 06:12 BST Apr 23
- SUP 1: 0.8602/8565 Low Apr 22 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
- SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
A strong rally Friday in EURGBP resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8602, the Mar 22 high and a key resistance. The continuation higher Monday confirms a range breakout and a resumption of the bull cycle that started Feb 14. 0.8633, 50.0% of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle, has been cleared. This opens 0.8665, the 61.8% retracement. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 0.8565, the 50-day EMA. A break of it would be bearish.
