US PREVIEW: Trading Hours For Holiday Friday
Reminder: today's NFP report lands on Good Friday for the first time since 2023 and before that 2021. It sees a condensed session for markets with Treasuries closing at 1115ET (futures)/1200ET (cash) and a particularly abrupt equity session with futures closing just 45 minutes after the publication at 0915ET with cash closed all day - see table.
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SOFR: Mix Of Positioning Moves In Futures On Tuesday, Oil Swings In Control
OI data points to a mix of dominant positioning themes across packs as the SOFR futures strip twist flattened on Tuesday.
- Short setting dominated in the whites with long cover noted in the reds, before short cover came to the fore in the greens & blues.
- Long cover in SFRZ6 provided the largest net positioning move in single contract terms.
- Swings in commodity prices after the recent escalation in the Middle East continued to shape sentiment.
| 03-Mar-26 | 02-Mar-26 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRZ5 | 1,311,150 | 1,303,923 | +7,227 | Whites | +20,894 |
SFRH6 | 1,338,314 | 1,328,087 | +10,227 | Reds | -18,103 |
SFRM6 | 1,313,382 | 1,324,585 | -11,203 | Greens | -11,764 |
SFRU6 | 1,235,721 | 1,221,078 | +14,643 | Blues | -28,959 |
SFRZ6 | 1,328,772 | 1,376,511 | -47,739 |
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SFRH7 | 918,148 | 914,876 | +3,272 |
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SFRM7 | 881,340 | 856,736 | +24,604 |
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SFRU7 | 723,165 | 721,405 | +1,760 |
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SFRZ7 | 1,072,383 | 1,066,863 | +5,520 |
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SFRH8 | 549,439 | 550,360 | -921 |
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SFRM8 | 425,822 | 427,529 | -1,707 |
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SFRU8 | 366,737 | 381,393 | -14,656 |
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SFRZ8 | 379,157 | 392,860 | -13,703 |
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SFRH9 | 227,725 | 229,215 | -1,490 |
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SFRM9 | 189,246 | 198,159 | -8,913 |
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SFRU9 | 179,898 | 184,751 | -4,853 |
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ISRAEL: Local Media Reports IDF Says Two Weeks More Bombing Of Iran
Israel's Channel 13 reports that "Senior IDF officers say today (Wednesday) that we have two more weeks of bombings across Iran ahead of us, with the plan being to attack thousands of targets with heavy bombers from the United States military - including all targets of the regime, the Revolutionary Guards, Basij, satellites, drones and tanks." Al Jazeera, reports Israel's Channel 12 stating the bombardment will last "at least" two weeks, rather than a set fortnight.
- Separately, Israel's Ynet reports that "In terms of the targets ahead, the IDF explains that there is a systematic plan to move to a set of military targets of the regime. These are thousands of targets. To do this, Americans are needed, and therefore, a systematic crushing of all regime targets and military targets, throughout Iran, is currently expected in the next two weeks."
- These are the first public comments attributed to the IDF with at least some form of timeframe for how long the bombardment of Iran could continue. Of course, this timeline is almost certain to shift around given the highly fluid nature of the geopolitical situation in the region. A key question is whether a two-week aerial offensive is a precursor to further action, or the extent of the attacks from Israel and the US.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: Feb ADP, S&P Services PMI, ISM, Beige Book
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 03/04 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications
- 03/04 0815 ADP Employment Change for February (22k, 50k)
- 03/04 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI final (52.3, 52.3), Composite PMI final (52.3, 52.3)
- 03/04 1000 ISM Services Index (53.8, 53.5), Prices Paid (66.6, 68.3)
- 03/04 1000 ISM Services New Orders (53.1, 53.5), Employment (50.3, 50.6)
- 03/04 1130 US Tsy $69B 17W bill auction
- 03/04 1400 Fed Beige Book
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
