USDCAD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 148.17/149.14 High Sep 11 / High Sep 3  
• PRICE: 146.41 @ 20:37 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14  
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.80 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low
• SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg

Key short-term support to watch in USDJPY is 146.21, the Aug 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would highlight a stronger bearish threat and highlight a range breakout. This would expose 145.40, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, clearance of 149.14, the Sep 3 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.

The short end continued to gain ground Tuesday on the eve of the Fed decision, but notably 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y Treasury yields were on course for their lowest close since April 4.

• Morning data saw Treasuries sell off, with August retail sales coming in on the hot side (as did import prices, offset by lower revisions), with the implied strong consumer dynamics later spurring an upgrade in the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow for Q3 growth to 3.41% from 3.09%.
• However, that would mark the low point of the session, with Treasuries finding a foothold as equities faded.
• The 20Y auction saw a small trade through (0.2bp) along with more encouraging internals, including he lowest dealer takeup since mid-2024. While there was little reaction in broader Treasuries, which had already moved to the session's best levels ahead of the auction, the auction cemented a positive tone for the space heading into Wednesday's Fed decision.
• The short-end/belly outperformed in a bull steepening move overall. Fed rate cut expectations extended very mildly on the day (about 1bp through the next 5 FOMC meetings), with a 25bp cut Wednesday a little over 100% priced, and 68bp total through end-year.
• Latest levels: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.5bps at 3.5116%, 5-Yr is down 1.6bp at 3.5900%, 10-Yr is down 0.6bps at 4.0317%, and 30-Yr is down 1bps at 4.6506%. Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) up 1.5/32  at 113-16.5 (L: 113-8.5 / H: 113-18.5)
• Data is on the light side Wednesday (MBA mortgage apps and housing starts/permits), leaving the stage clear for the FOMC decision and projections and Chair Powell's press conference. Besides the expected cut (and outside chance of 50bp), there will be with attention on any shift lower in the 2025 rate "Dots" as well as potential dissents. Much more in our preview here.

• RES 3: 95.995 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 95.865 - 1.000 proj of the Sep 3 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 95.780 - High Sep 12
• PRICE: 95.740 @ 20:22 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 95.510 - Low Sep 3  
• SUP 2: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14 
• SUP 3: 95.275 - Low Nov 14  (cont) and a key support

Aussie 10-yr futures are trading closer to their recent highs and a short-term bull cycle remains in play. Short-term resistance to watch is last week’s 95.780 high on Sep 12. A break of this level would signal scope for a continuation higher and pave the way for a climb towards 95.865, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 95.510, the Sep 3 low.