GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Below Monday’s High
Jan-25 06:11
- RES 4: 1.2599 High Jun 7
- RES 3: 1.2558 High Jub 9, 2022
- RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
- RES 1: 1.2448 High Jan 23
- PRICE: 1.2322 @ 06:10 GMT Jan 25
- SUP 1: 1.2264 Low Jan 24
- SUP 2: 1.2226/2083 20-day EMA / Low Jan 9
- SUP 3: 1.2081 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger
GBPUSD has pulled back from recent highs. The move lower is considered corrective. A broader bullish structure remains intact and moving average studies continue to highlight an uptrend. Earlier this week, price pierced resistance at 1.2446, Dec 14 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started late September 2022 and open 1.2506, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 1.2226, the 20-day EMA.
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US TSYS: Cash Treasuries Close Early With Further Sizeable Cheapening
Dec-23 19:10
- Cash Tsys hold onto further cheapening today at the early close, with yields 5-8.5bps higher on the day but just remaining off pre-U.Mich session highs across 2-10Y tenors.
- Those session highs were also month to date highs from 5Y tenors onwards, with the 2Y at highs since the Nov CPI miss on Dec 13 and the subsequent fall in terminal Fed pricing from close to 5% to ~4.9% currently.
- 2YY +5.0bps at 4.321%, 5YY +5.4bps at 3.857%, 10YY +6.9bps at 3.747% and 30YY +8.5bps at 3.823%.
- The first wave of US data were broadly as expected with core PCE inflation moderating and a small beat for income growth, before more mixed 1000ET data with new home sales surprisingly bouncing but importantly U.Mich inflation expectations being revised lower.
- Treasury futures are still set for a full session, with TYH3 currently trading 15 ticks lower at 113-02+ having earlier touched 112-31. In the process it cleared support at 113-09+ (Dec 21 low) to open the key short-term 112-11+ (Nov 21 low).
CANADA: GoC Yields Extend Session Highs
Dec-23 17:20
- Hard to see latest drivers but GoC yields across 2-10Y tenors, now up 12bps in the front-end to belly and 10bps for 10Y.
- Can-US yield differentials continue to narrow: 2Y at -39bps, 10Y -56bps, both close to highs since the BoC’s surprise Oct downshift.
- Move coincides with USDCAD stepping to new session lows to lows since Dec 15 at 1.3563. Support seen 1.3519 (Dec 14 low).
